000 AGXX40 KNHC 190707 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EST WED DEC 19 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRESS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH NE-SW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE GULF PRODUCING NE TO E WINDS E OF 90W AND SE RETURN FLOW W OF 90W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES WINDS ARE BELOW 20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. SLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND THU OVER THE NRN GULF AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND TRACKS EWD TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY LATE THU AND OFF THE GA COAST ON FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE LOW CONTINUES EWD INTO THE ATLC WATERS LATE FRI WITH SHORT-LIVED WEAK RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND IT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND INCREASES TO 20-25 KT W OF 90W AND SPREADS TO ALL AREAS W OF 85W SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SAT AND SWEEPS RAPIDLY SEWD...EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 21N97W BY SAT NIGHT AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 19N94W BY SUN EVENING. OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS AND UKMET ARE PAINTING GALES OVER THE SW GULF ON SUN WHILE THE LOW RESOLUTION NOGAPS AND ECMWF INDICATE 30 KT WINDS. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND PROBABILITIES FOR GALES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE GFS ENSEMBLES WILL HOIST A HEADLINE FOR THE SW GULF ON SUN FOR MARGINAL GALES. NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXPECTED OVER THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. SW N ATLANTIC... THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 26N65W 22N78W IS BEGINNING TO LOSE DEFINITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY TRADES. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 20 KT WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE TIGHTEST PRESS GRADIENT. AS HIGH PRESS WEAKENS OVER THE SE U.S. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI. LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE GA COAST ON FRI ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN SLY WINDS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. AS THE LOW SLIDES EWD BENEATH A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND MODERATE NE WINDS OF 20+ KT ARE USHERED INTO THE AREA ON SAT. NE WINDS AND LARGE SWELL CONTINUE OVER THE E HALF OF THE AREA SUN AS THE SAME LOW PRES AREA INTENSIFIES WELL E OF THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE S TO SW WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM E-CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS STILL REVEALED NE WINDS OF 20 KT NW OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH. HIGH PRESS N OF THE AREA ALLOWS TYPICAL ELY TRADES TO DEVELOP AREA-WIDE. FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SHRINK BACK TO THE E CARIB AND TROP N ATLC BY THU. WINDS REMAIN MODERATE ON FRI BEFORE NE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRES PATTERN N OF THE REGION. FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS FAVORS SOME FUNNELING IN THE ATLC PASSAGES ON SUN AND WILL WORD THE FCST ACCORDINGLY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB