000
AGXX40 KNHC 181719
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS WELL IN CONTROL 
WITH WINDS MAINLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT NE TO E WINDS IN THE 
SE CORNER. FAIRLY LIGHT RETURN FLOW IS ESTABLISHED W OF 95W. 
THIS SLY FLOW WILL SPREAD EWD AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. 
THIS GIVES WAY TO A LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE SRN 
PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REVEALING A FAIRLY 
SRN STREAM LOW TRACKING W TO E JUST N OF THE REGION. PRIMARY 
EFFECTS WILL BE SHIFTING WINDS WLY N OF 26N OR SO AND AN 
INCREASE IN TSTM CHANCE N OF 28N ON THU AND FRI. THE LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLC WATERS LATE FRI WITH WEAK RIDGING 
BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE RIDGING WILL NOT LAST 
LONG...HOWEVER...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS 
COAST ON SAT. STRONG SLY WINDS...20-25 KT...EXPECTED TO SHIFT N 
TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS IS SHOWING WINDS TO GALE FORCE W OF 
THE FRONT...BUT WILL MONITOR CONSISTENCY OF THE MODEL BEFORE 
PUTTING UP HEADLINE. 

SW N ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL DEFINED ALONG 31N59W 24N70W THEN 
STALLING AND LOSING DEFINITION ACROSS ERN CUBA. CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE LINED UP WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT AS 
NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY. N TO NE WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KT W OF THE 
FRONT TO ABOUT 78W. NW SWELL IS PRODUCING 8-11 FT SEAS NW OF  
FRONT TO ABOUT 75W. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AS IT 
LOSES UPPER SUPPORT...AND HANG AROUND AS A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH 
THU. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS PRES 
GRADIENT SLACKENS AND NW SWELL EVENT SHUTS OFF. NE WINDS AND 
LARGE SWELL INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE PRES PATTERN 
TIGHTENS BETWEEN A HIGH N OF THE AREA AND A LOW TO THE E. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
STALLED OR SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS. PATCHY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE 
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NW CARIB BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MORNING'S 
QSCAT PASS STILL REVEALED NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BEHIND 
THE FRONT...BUT BUOYS HAVE DROPPED OFF SINCE THEN. SEAS ARE 
RUNNING IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT. BASED ON THE 
DECAYING TREND IN THE DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE...THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND TOMORROW AT THIS TIME ALLOWING 
TYPICAL ELY TRADES TO DEVELOP AREA-WIDE. FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE 
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SHRINK BACK TO THE E CARIB AND TROP N ATLC 
BY THU. THEN WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE ON FRI BEFORE NE WINDS 
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRES PATTERN N OF 
THE REGION. 


WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI