000 AGXX40 KNHC 141633 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE REMNANT OF OLGA...NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SWATH OF FRESH NE FLOWS FROM S FLORIDA TO YUCATAN. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST AND VEER SE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST INTO THE YUCATAN. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW NOW OVER NEW MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE FRONT ALONG WITH GULF SEA TEMPS IN THE MID UPPER 70S...SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG NWLY FLOW. WILL FAVOR STRONGER GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOWING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE NAM SHOWS STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE VERACRUZ COAST IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GIVEN PAST SIMILAR EVENTS THIS IS PLAUSIBLE. ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW JUST BELOW GALE CONDITIONS...BUT ARE CONSISTENT WITH NAM AND GFS IN TIMING AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE INTO WED AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ATLANTIC... CURRENTLY A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 30N TO NE FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP/BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW IN A LARGE SWATH NORTH OF THE ANTILLES THROUGH TO SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. JASON ALTIMETER AND SHIP/BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW ACCOMPANYING SWELL UP TO 10 FT WITH THE PERSISTENT ELY FLOW. FORECASTING SLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH AND TO THE N OF THE BAHAMAS STARTING SAT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST BY SAT NIGHT. TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND A LOW PRES AREA MOVING INTO THE MID ATLC STATES WILL INDUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT IN WATERS E OF NE FLORIDA AND N/NE OF BAHAMAS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WHETHER THIS WILL REACH GALE CONDITIONS AS INDICATED IN THE GFS. GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTS A CHANCE OF GALES IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 30N. STRONG NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DIMINISH MON/TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING MODERATE TO FRESH NELY FLOW S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TUE/WED IN THE WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. CARIBBEAN... SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP/BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 20 TO 25 KT FLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT AROUND THE REMNANTS OF OLGA NOW BETWEEN GRAND CAYMAN AND YUCATAN. WINDS AROUND OLGA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE LOW MOVES W INTO YUCATAN AND WEAKENS. THE TRADES WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE DOMINANT HIGH PRES TO THE NE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST SAT NIGHT. THIS SAME FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS SUN/MON BRINGING STRONG NLY WINDS DOWN THE BELIZE COAST. THIS WILL DIMINISH MON/TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N. THE HIGH SHIFTS NE THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES. PLACEMENT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH N AND THE HIGH NOT SUFFICIENT STRONG...SO THAT ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN