000 AGXX40 KNHC 140107 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 807 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPDATE... MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT GALES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE NW AND SW GULF ZONES. THE 18Z GFS IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN IT WAS ADVERTISING LAST EVENING...AND OVERALL HAS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY FROM RUN-TO-RUN. IN ADDITION...GFS ENSEMBLE GALE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN RUNNING AS HIGH AS 60%. WILL GO AHEAD AND NOTCH UP THE FCST A BIT IN THE UPDATE PACKAGE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THOSE ZONES. STILL TOO SOON FOR A WARNING...THAT WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE FRI AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FORECASTER BERG PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BRISK ELY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND E THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE BAHAMAS ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE WIND FIELD OF THE REMNANT OLGA LOW PRES IN NW CARIBBEAN. SLY FLOW WITH THE REMNANT LOW IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OVER THE SE QUAD TO INCLUDE JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK W AND INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT...AND ABSORBED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER A INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE REMNANT LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NW BAHAMAS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT AND A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE. THIS TROUGH AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN THE PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE AREA FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER TO THE NW...A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT N FRI AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST SAT MORNING. WINDS N OF THIS FRONT TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...AND SEAS TO MAYBE AS HIGH AS 14 FT IN CENTRAL AND SW GULF LATE SUN. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE GA COAST AROUND SUNRISE SUN AND REACHES A PSN FROM 31N75W THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUNSET SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO MAX ABOUT 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN ATLC WATERS NW OF FRONT. FRONT WILL LOSE ITS SE PUSH AFTER MOVING THROUGH BERMUDA MON AFTERNOON. ATLC RIDGE IS ALONG 30N ATTM...AND WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 27N LATE SAT AS THE OLGA TROUGH MOVES INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL LIE ALONG 25N LATE SUN THEN SHIFT E AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SW ATLC. ELY TRADES ARE QUITE BRISK S OF THIS RIDGE...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS WIND FIELD IS CURRENTLY ALONG 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT MERGES WITH THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED THE REMNANTS OF OLGA IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS INCREASE IN THE TRADES SHOULD SPREAD W IN THE CARIBBEAN TO ALONG 80W SAT...WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN WITH N SWELLS REACHING THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON