000 AGXX40 KNHC 090626 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 126 AM EST SUN DEC 09 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... A DISCONNECTED SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED NEAR 32N WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ZONE. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH 15-20 KT OCCURRING S OF 27N AND 20-25 KT OVER THE SE PORTION NEAR PUERTO RICO. WW3 GUIDANCE ALREADY INDICATES 9-10 FT EASTERLY SWELLS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E...CORROBORATED BY SEA HEIGHTS REPORTED BY NOAA BUOY 41043. THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER ON THE HORIZON IS A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...POISED TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO MON AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND SHOULD BE 25-30 KT N OF PUERTO RICO BEGINNING TONIGHT AND ADVANCING WEST TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN OCCASIONAL 35 KT WIND BARB MAINLY ON MON BUT STILL THERE IS NO AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS NOR THE ENSEMBLES. IN ORDER TO RESPECT THE GFS...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAKE MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35 KT BUT WILL NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. EASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN...LIKELY BUILDING TO MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 16 OR 17 FT OVER THE FAR SE PART ON MON. WINDS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH ON TUE BUT 20-25 KT WILL STILL COVER A GOOD CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE S OF 26N. CONTINUED SLACKENING OF THE WINDS IS EXPECTED WED AND THU AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SINKS SLOWLY S...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WELL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW WITHIN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ALONG 56W AND IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. WINDS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE ZONE ARE NE TO E 20-25 KT MAINLY N OF 17N BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 30 KT IN SPOTS BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A GALE WARNING WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE CARIBBEAN ITSELF...WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WITH 20-25 KT COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION AND UP TO 30 KT OFF THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 30 KT WITHIN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT ON MON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...THEN THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE S COAST OF CUBA WED AND THU AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES W. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL RE-STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND FAR NE CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE AXIS IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF WITH A SOLID AREA OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF...AND RETURN FLOW TO 20 KT OFF THE TEXAS COAST. ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT WED WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RETURN FLOW TO DIMINISH A BIT ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST WED NIGHT BUT NOW MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY STALL ALONG THE COAST THU. IN LIGHT OF THIS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OUT OF THE NORTH OVER THE NW GULF WATERS SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE LITTLE HEADWAY OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO MAKE SOME CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG