000 AGXX40 KNHC 071854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 202 PM EST FRI DEC 07 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 31N THROUGH SAT TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS ENTIRE REGION S OF 27N AS TROUGH NOW ALONG 50W MOVES W. TROUGH REACH LESSER ANTILLES SUN WITH STRONG NE WIND WITHIN 600 NM W OF AXIS. STRONGEST WINDS MAY REACH JUST UNDER GALE FORCE LATE SUN AND MON JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. GFS AND NOGAPS MAX WINDS TO 30 KT WHILE UKMET CAPS THEM AT 25 KT. FORECAST WILL MENTION SHORT BURST OF 30 KT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THESE TWO MODELS. NO QUESTION THAT LARGE SWELL TRAINS...ALREADY BUILDING NE OF AREA...WILL IMPACT SW N ATLC WITHIN NEXT 12-24 HRS STARTING AT 65W EXPANDING PROGRESSIVELY WWD. NWW3 PEAKS SEA HEIGHTS AT 16 FT EARLY TUE AND DOWN ONLY A COUPLE OF FT BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WINDS REFLECT TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AND HIGHER THROUGH SAT. NWW3 BRINGS SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FT WHICH MIGHT BE CONSIDERED LOW CONSIDERING WE ALREADY OBSERVED 10 FT JUST N OF MONA PASSAGE. FORECAST WILL INCH SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE MON OR TUE AS TROUGH PASSAGE EASES GRADIENT...BUT REBUILDING RIDGE STARTS PROCESS ANEW OVER TRPCL ATLC REGION SPREADING IT INTO ERN CARIBBEAN BY WED. GULF OF MEXICO... WIND FLOW PATTERN TURNS SE AS ATLC RIDGE REACHES INTO GULF OF MEXICO. PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. RETURN FLOW OFF TEXAS COAST INCREASE MON AS LOW PRES BUILDS OVER TEXAS PLAINS AND SHIFT NE BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO NW GULF WATERS WED. GFS BRINGS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED N WINDS INTO NW GULF WHICH SOON DIMINISH AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM AREA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES