000 AGXX40 KNHC 070702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 202 AM EST FRI DEC 07 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE ROUGHLY ALONG 30N AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ALONG 31N TODAY AND SAT...AND THE PRES GRADIENT WILL FIRST BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE REGION AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. BY SUN...THE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 20-25 KT WINDS WILL HAVE SET UP S OF 27N E OF 78W...LIKELY EVEN INCREASING TO 30 KT IN AREAS THAT EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE SUN AND MON WHERE A SOLID ZONE OF 25-30 KT WILL SET UP N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS N OF PUERTO ALONG 22N ON MON SO THE FCST WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE MENTION OF GALES UNTIL THERE IS MORE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS...THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT AS WELL SINCE THE FETCH OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DYNAMIC...MOVING FROM E TO W ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN. WW3 GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO 18 FT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION BY LATE MON DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS AND SWELLS. SINCE THE GALES WILL BE DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT...WILL INCREASE SEAS TO AT LEAST 16 FT AND STAY JUST BELOW WW3 GUIDANCE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WINDS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS A TROUGH ALONG 50W APPROACHES THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND SPREAD W WITH THE TROUGH WITH 20-25 KT COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WIND FUNNELING IS STILL EXPECTED TO ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 30 KT IN THE FAVORED AREA JUST S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THAT TIME FRAME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON MON AND TUE AS THE ISOBARIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE ORIENTED FROM E TO W AND CONCENTRATED JUST N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY SET UP ACROSS THE GULF AS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LIFTS N AND DISSIPATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS ON SAT AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FROM E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT AND WILL LAST THROUGH TUE. WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND W TEXAS. A SOLID AREA OF 20 KT...MAYBE UP TO 25 KT...IS EXPECTED OFF TEXAS/NE MEXICO ON MON AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS TEXAS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY LATE TUE NIGHT...SO THE FCST WILL NOT MAKE MENTION OF THIS FEATURE SINCE THE BULK OF ITS EFFECTS WILL OCCUR BEYOND THE DAY 5 PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT TIMING CHANGES IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG