000 AGXX40 KNHC 051839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST WED DEC 05 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STILL APPEARS TO BE REMNANT WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THRU FL STRAITS AND W SW TOWARD NRN YUCATAN AND INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THIS EVENING...AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXITS THE NRN GULF COAST TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THERE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PLAN TO HOLD POST FRONTAL WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU OVER THE NRN PORTIONS AS THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. ALTHO WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT WITHIN COASTAL ZONES THRU NRN GULF WITH RELATIVELY COLD AIR MASS EXITING COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF MOVE NE THRU THE GULF TOWARD THE W FL COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING POTENT MID/UPPER LVL TROFS AND CLOSED LOWS OVER WRN US...WHICH RESULTS IN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER GULF AND SERN US BEGINNING FRI. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SE WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL GENERALLY INCREASE FRI AND REMAIN IN 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO MON. BY MON...ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW OFF SRN CA COAST BEGINS TO EJECT NE THRU DESERT SW SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SRN PLAINS MON. AS FRONT PUSHES SE THRU TX...WILL INCREASE SE WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE NW GULF. ALSO PLAN TO STAY CLOSE TO 12Z WNA WAVEWATCH3 THRU FORECAST PERIOD. SO OVERALL...NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SW/TROPICAL N ATLC/CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK LOW PRES NEAR THE NRN BAHAMAS ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS SHUD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY GET ABSORBED BY STRONGER APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE FL/GA COASTS EARLY THU. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING SOME SW WINDS UP TO 25 AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BUT THE 25 KT WINDS SHUD MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS N OF 27N THU/THU NIGHT. TOWARDS WEEKS END AND THRU MOST OF THE REMAINING FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A W MOVING LOW PRES TROF THRU THE TROPICAL ATLC...WHICH TOGETHER WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES RIDGE OFF THE SE US COAST WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED TRADE WINDS THU NIGHT THRU MON...MAINLY OVER THE TROPCIAL N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN. BUT ALSO EXTENDING INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC SAT. FOR NOW WILL KEEPS THESE TRADES AT A 25 KT MAX...BUT IF MODEL TREND CONTINUES STRONGER WITH RIDGE...MAY HAVE TO INCREASE WINDS TO 30 KT ESPECIALLY THRU MONA/WINDWARD PASSAGES SUN/MON. SEAS...THE SIGNIFICANT NW SWELL WHICH HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE SW N ATLC PAST COUPLE DAYS SHUD FINALLY PUSH E OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. 12Z WAVEWATCH3 SEAS LOOK REASONABLE IN AREAS OF ENHANCED TRADES... GENERATING 12 TO 14 FT MAXES SW N ATLC...AND 11 TO 12 FT MAXES E AND SW CARIBBEAN. THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY THRU FORECAST PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CLARK