000 AGXX40 KNHC 040622 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM EST TUE DEC 04 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SE PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR FT MYERS FLORIDA TO 25N92W THEN SURGING SWD INTO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONGEST NLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE SURGING PART OF THE FRONT (FUNNELING EFFECT) AS REVEALED BY A 03Z QSCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED 25-30 KT IN THE SW GULF. N TO NE WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE N OF THE BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE STILL GENERALLY NLY...EFFECTED BY THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT ARE MUCH LIGHTER. HIGHEST SEAS REPORTED ARE 9 FT AT BUOY 42002 IN THE W GULF. WW3 GUIDANCE IS ON TARGET IN THAT AREA WHICH SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS IN THE SW GULF...WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE SRN GULF LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER SUPPORT SLIDES E. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THRU THU. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FRI AND SAT ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF ATLC RIDGING ALLOWING MODERATE SE TO S WINDS TO SET UP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC WATERS... COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. N TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH ARE ELEVATING SEAS UP TO 11 FT...MUCH HIGHER N OF THE AREA. LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG 20-30 KT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A PAIR OF WEAK SFC TROUGHS LIE OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS BUT ARE OVERALL LITTLE WEATHER PRODUCERS. MAIN STORY S OF 28N IS NLY SWELL PRODUCING SEAS 9-11 FT E OF 71W. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT ...THEN STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WED. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS MID-WEEK. NLY SWELL SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE THRU TOMORROW. STRONG W TO SW WINDS WILL AFFECT N PORTION OF AREA WED NIGHT AND THU AS LOW PRES TRACKS N OF THE REGION. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TROPICAL AND SE SUBTROPICAL PORTIONS THU NIGHT THRU SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES N AND LOW PRES E OF AREA. LARGE E SWELLS WILL ALSO BRING SEAS UP TO 11 FT BY SAT. CARIBBEAN... TRADE WIND FLOW IS MORE RELAXED TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKENED PATTERN BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. LATEST SCAT DATA AND SFC OBS SHOW A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND HAITI. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TODAY AND BASICALLY STAY LIGHT THRU WED NIGHT/THU. NELY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THU IN THE E CARIB AND SPREAD WWD AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TROUGHING TO THE S AND E. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 9-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS BY SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIB BY THE END OF THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DVLPG STRONG NELY FETCH. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI