000 AGXX40 KNHC 031726 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1225 PM EST MON DEC 03 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO THIS MORNING...WILL EXTEND FROM TAMPA BAY AREA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG NLY FOLLOW THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY OVER NEAR THE SOUTH TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS WHERE FUNNELING EFFECTS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO REACH 30 KT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DIMINISH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE IN ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE TUE AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF. MEANWHILE LOW PRES DEVELOPS TUE INTO WED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK PRES FIELD OVER THE GULF AND RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW INTO THU. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFT E THU/FRI...FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RESULTS IN MODEST RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE THU INTO FRI PERSISTING INTO SAT ON THE AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. ATLANTIC WATERS... SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED NE-SW EXTENDS FROM 20N55W TO JUST NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW IS EVIDENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SHIPS ARE REPORTING LARGE NLY SWELL GENERALLY E OF 65W. SWLY INCREASES TODAY N OF 28N AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY INCREASED NW WINDS. THE HIGH TO THE EAST SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLC...AND THE TROUGH DISSIPATES. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS NE OF THE BAHAMAS VEER SE THEN SW AHEAD OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WED...WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DISSIPATING NE OF THE BAHAMAS. TRADES WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE S OF 24N THU IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC BEHIND THE LOW PRES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLC FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW EMERGING OFF THE JERSEY COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD IN TOW PUSHING E OFF THE CAROLINAS TOWARD BERMUDA AND DISSIPATING. THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SWELL DECAYS E OF THE LEEWARDS BY WED...BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN S OF 20N AS ELY TRADES START TO INCREASE THU...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE ELY SWELL BY SAT. CARIBBEAN... SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NELY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS. WINDS THROUGH THE PASSAGE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. ELY ATLC SWELL N OF THE ISLANDS MAY REFRACT THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES TUE AND AND TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DECAY AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. ELY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THU OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE INCREASED WINDS WILL SPREAD W TO ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SAT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE PUERTO RICO TO PANAMA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 10 FT BY SAT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN