000 AGXX40 KNHC 020916 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST SUN DEC 02 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF HIGH PRES RIDGING WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE SW ZONE. WINDS ARE PRIMARILY SE-S 10-15 KT...EXCEPT SE 15-20 KT W OF 94W. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT N OF 25N W OF 94W WHERE THEY HAVE COME UP TO 5-7 FT. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE SE 15-20 KT WINDS W OF 94W WILL DIMINISH TO SW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES E TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY TO A PSN FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS EARLY MON MORNING...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE MON MORNING...FROM SW FLORIDA TO NEAR 21N97W MON NIGHT...AND EXIT THE GULF TUE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE N-NE AND IN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TUE. HIGH PRES THEN QUICKLY SETTLES IN ACROSS CROSS THE GULF TUE AND WED ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME RATHER LIGHT WLY IN ALL ZONES...EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE SW PART. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE GULF WED AND THU... FOLLOWED BY NW-N WINDS OF 10-15 KT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE E GULF IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRES THAT GATHERS MOMENTUM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SW N ATLC... A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SSE 15-20 KT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 29N65W SW THROUGH 26N70W AND NW TO 27N75W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE TO 29N79W. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATES BY TONIGHT...WHILE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO BUILD SE INTO AREA TODAY ...THEN SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS THROUGH EARLY MON. N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE PRESENT N OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA N OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE-E THROUGH TODAY AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT W OF ABOUT 70W. MODELS SHOW NEXT PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY MON MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E RATHER QUICKLY REACHING FROM 31N74W TO S CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY MON EVENING...FROM 31N65W TO SW BAHAMAS WHERE IT WEAKENS TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN FROM 28N65W TO W BAHAMAS EARLY TUE EVENING. FRONT THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE WED OVER THE SE PART. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHARPLY SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MAINLY OVER THE FAR N WATERS MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TUE. WINDS E OF THE FRONT INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF ABOUT 28N MON AND MON NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO SW 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NE PART TUE AS FRONT WEAKENS. LOW PRES FORMS NEAR THE MID-ATLC COAST WED AND SWING A COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE WED AND THU. LATEST GFS BOUNDARY WINDS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WINDS E OF THE FRONT AT THE PRESENT TIME SHOWING SW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT. OTHER GLOBAL MODEL WIND GUIDANCE DEPICTS GENERALLY SW 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLNS HERE WITH RESPECT TO THESE WINDS AND KEEP THE PRESENTLY ADVERTISED 15-20 KT E THIS FRONT. WILL DO SAME FOR BEHIND THE FRONT (NW-N 15-20 KT)...ALTHOUGH GFS ALSO SHOWS 20-25 KT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA...WINDS BE RATHER LIGHT SE-S 10-15 KT E OF BAHAMAS AND NW-N 10 KT W OF BAHAMAS EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT OVER AND NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS WED INTO THU. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD NE TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 26N54W IS MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRES AREA BUILDING OVER THE REST OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE PORTION E OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE NW WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH NE-E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THESE WATERS. SEVERAL SHIPS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE WINDS ARE BEING NOTED ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WATERS AROUND PUERTO RICO AND CARIBBEAN NE PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY ABATING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...CORRECTED TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT MON...N-NE 10 KT TUE...THEN BECOME VARIABLE 5-10 KT WED AND THU AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC BREAKS DOWN JUST ENOUGH AS COLD FRONTS MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST. ELY TRADES ELSEWHERE WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 20-25 KT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO E 10-15 KT WED AND THU UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH TUE BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE NE SECTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND ABSORBS THE TROUGH. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE