000 AGXX40 KNHC 011835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EST SAT DEC 01 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE AND EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA SW TO NEAR FT. PIERCE FLORIDA. FARTHER SE...A STRONG NE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE N OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TO ITS N...AND THIS AREA WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS N OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY SUN. THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE OF THE REGION SO SWELLS WILL PROBABLY ONLY BUILD TO 12 FT OR SO OVER THE FAR NE PORTION...WELL SHORT OF THE 12-20 FT EXPECTED FARTHER E OVER THE HIGH SEAS. HIGH PRES RE-BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUN/SUN NIGHT BUT THEN WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION EARLY MON. GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE NEAR NEW YORK CITY MON MORNING AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATER THAT AFTERNOON. SW TO W WINDS 20-30 KT WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N ON MON THEN SHIFT NW AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. EVEN THROUGH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE ZONE ON TUE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVENING AGAIN WITH THE LARGEST SWELLS CONFINED TO THE NE PORTION. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT ON WED YET WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN CONTROL N OF 25N THROUGH THU AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. ONE NOTE ABOUT THE SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 26N55W...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH...THE SAME ONE MENTIONED ABOVE...LIES ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE OFFSHORE VENEZUELAN ISLANDS TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N59W. WINDS ARE UP TO 20 KT TO THE W OF THE TROUGH MAINLY OVER N/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT TO 20-25 KT ESPECIALLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING SW OF THE MONA PASSAGE. BECAUSE OF THESE STRONGER WINDS...AND THE FACT THAT SOME SWELLS WILL PROBABLY SNEAK THROUGH THE PASSAGE...WW3 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 10 FT WHICH SEAMS REASONABLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON MON AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. IN FACT...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC AREA AS THE PRES GRADIENT BREAKS DOWN. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE W ATLC ON THU...WHICH WILL RE-ESTABLISH A 10-15 KT TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GULF WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA SW TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO AT THE MOMENT...AND THIS IS PRODUCING SE/S 15-20 KT RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THEN SHOULD DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE HIGH IS PUSHED E BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST SUN EVENING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE N OVER THE NW GULF EARLY MON MORNING. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO THE FORECAST WILL NO LONGER CALL FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KT...JUST A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF 20-25 KT EARLY MON THROUGH MON EVENING. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE W/CENTRAL GULF ON TUE BUT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ROUGHLY NEAR 23N ON WED AND THIS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS...AND VARIABLE WINDS FARTHER S. ON THU WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER E AND SE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG