000 AGXX40 KNHC 010706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST SAT DEC 01 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF HIGH PRES RIDGING WHICH EXTENDS SWD INTO THE AREA. BOTH BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ARE INDICATING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE-E 10-15 KT...EXCEPT IN THE NW PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT AND SE 15-20 KT W OF 95W TO NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST AND NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN EVENING OR EARLY MON MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR W GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING THEN DIMINISH SOME AS THE FRONT APPROACHES E TEXAS LATER ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY TO A PSN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE MON MORNING...FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE MON AFTERNOON...AND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE MORNING AND EXIT THE GULF LATER ON TUE AS MODELS DEPICT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE N-NE AND IN INCREASE TO 20-25 K LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TUE. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 30 KT IN THE SW GULF MON FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH. HIGH PRES THEN QUICKLY SETTLES IN ACROSS CROSS THE GULF TUE AND WED ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME RATHER LIGHT WLY IN ALL ZONES...EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE SW PART. A WEAK TROUGH MAY BRUSH THROUGH N AND THE FAR NE PART OF THE GULF ON WED. SW N ATLC... A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB LOW JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N75W SW TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE TROUGH DISSIPATING AS HIGH PRES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDS SE INTO AREA THROUGH SUN. N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE PRESENTLY BEING OBSERVED TO THE THE N OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE NE AND THEN E AND INCREASE TO 20 KT ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. MODELS SHOW NEXT PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY MON MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E RATHER QUICKLY REACHING FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA LATE MON AFTERNOON...FROM 31N65W CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT WEAKENS TUE MORNING...AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH FROM 28N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE WED. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHARPLY SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MAINLY OVER THE FAR N WATERS MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE MON AND TUE...AND BECOME MORE W-NW AT 10-15 KT WED N OF 27N AS LOW PRES JUST STRADDLES THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA. WINDS BECOME MOSTLY WLY ABOUT 10 KT ELSEWHERE ON WED...EXCEPT SW 10-15 KT IN THE NE PART. EXPECT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N. A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WELL NE OF THE AREA OF THE AREA IS MOVING W 5-10 KT. ALTHOUGH IT IS PRESENTLY E OF FORECAST WATERS...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRES AREA BUILDING SE OVER THE N PORTION IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE PORTION E OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE NW WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED NE-E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THESE WATERS. SEVERAL SHIPS IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE THESE WINDS ARE NOTED ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WATERS AROUND PUERTO RICO AND CARIBBEAN NE PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST SUN MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY ABATING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE MOSTLY 20 KT WITH A FEW SPEEDS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE AS NOTED IN BOTH QUIKSCAT AND SCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT. SHIP WITH CALLER ID "ZCDG4" JUST N OF CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 10N78W HAS BEEN REPORTING NE WINDS OF 25 KT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THROUGH SUN...TO 10-15 KT MON...N-NE 10 KT TUE...THEN BECOME VARIABLE 5-10 KT WED AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC BREAKS DOWN JUST ENOUGH AS COLD FRONTS MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST. ELY TRADES ELSEWHERE WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THROUGH SAT MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL AGAIN START UP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN...BUT DIMINISH MON AND TUE AND BECOME VARIABLE 5-10 KT BY WED UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA SUN AND MON BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY LATE MON AND TUE AS THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE NE SECTION OF THE SW N ATLC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE TO BE GENERALLY E ABOUT 10 KT...EXCEPT SE-S 10 KT N OF 19N TUE AND WED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE