000 AGXX40 KNHC 301742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1242 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 15 KT OR LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY SAT IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE N BEHIND THE FRONT TO 20 TO 30 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON AND THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BEGINNING EARLY TUE AS THE FRONT CROSSES FLORIDA AND APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/PENINSULA. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT EVENT SO SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE UNABLE TO BUILD VERY MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT. IN FACT...HIGH PRES ALREADY BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE TUE AND MOVES E ACROSS THE GULF ZONES ON WED...SO WINDS WILL GO FROM NLY 20-25 KT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN A MATTER OF 24 HRS OR SO. ATLANTIC... A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA FROM 31N77W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE N SAT AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT QUICKLY SLIDES SE AND WEAKENS. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NE TO 25N56W AND WILL RETROGRADE TO THE W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRES GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN IT AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF PUERTO RICO SAT AND SUN. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC FOR A SHORT TIME SUN NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MON MORNING. STRONG SW/W WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N...POSSIBLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE THEN SHIFT NW 20-25 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON TUE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS ALTHOUGH EVEN BY WED 15-20 KT WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. CARIBBEAN... THE OVERALL TRADE WIND FLOW HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS BY SAT MORNING...AND THE PRES GRADIENT TO ITS W WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO 20 KT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES AS WELL AS OVER NRN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS DRIFT A LOW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT STILL PAINTS A TROUGH AXIS WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF 70W MON THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY DIMINISH IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH BY THAT TIME...SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WORRY AT THIS TIME. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG