000 AGXX40 KNHC 300730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WITH HIGH PRES PRESENT OVER THE AREA...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE BEING NOTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE-E 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE NW PORTION W OF 93W WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE 10 KT AS BEING REPORTED BY THE BUOYS. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT CONFIRMED THESE WIND CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE E REACHING A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE MON MORNING...AND FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE MON AFTERNOON. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FRONT THEN EXITS THE SE GULF GULF MON NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT LATE SUN...BUT SHARPLY INCREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT MON WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT IN THE SW GULF PER MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB LOW NEAR 31N77W SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE THROUGH TONIGHT PULLING THE TROUGH N OF THE AREA WHILE IT DISSIPATES AS HIGH PRES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDS SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. LIGHT NE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED TO THE THE N OF THE TROUGH. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ESE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE SUN. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THE NEXT PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY MON MORNING. THE FRONT RAPIDLY REACHES FROM 31N72W TO S FLORIDA LATE MON AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING... FROM 31N65W CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT WEAKENS TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO FURTHER WEAKEN FROM 28N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE TUE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHARPLY SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MAINLY OVER THE FAR N WATERS. EXPECT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TO ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 27N. A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT. A BROAD TROUGH WELL TO THE E OF THE AREA IS SLOWLY MOVING W. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH PRES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO MAINTAIN AN ALREADY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALREADY PRESENT TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS. BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED NE-E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THESE WATERS. SEVERAL SHIPS IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE THESE WINDS ARE NOTED ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WATERS AROUND PUERTO RICO AND CARIBBEAN NE PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST SUN MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MON AS THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE APPROACHES THE NE SECTION OF THE SW N ATLC. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE ABOUT 20 KT AS DEPICTED IN THE MOST SSMI DATA PASS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC BREAKS DOWN JUST ENOUGH AS COLD FRONTS MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST. ELY TRADES ELSEWHERE WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THROUGH SAT MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL AGAIN START UP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN...BUT DIMINISH MON AND TUE. THE ATLC TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SLOWLY W BEFORE WEAKENING MON ALLOWING FOR WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE TO BE GENERALLY E ABOUT 10 KT...EXCEPT SE-S 10 KT N OF 19N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE