000 AGXX40 KNHC 290733 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATES ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF UNDER HIGH PRES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST WHERE WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OUT OF THE NE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WINDS ARE NE-E 10-15 KT...EXCEPT SE 10 KT IN THE FAR W PORTION AS SEEN IN THE BUOY REPORTS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE ...EXCEPT THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING... BUT WILL QUICKLY STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF FRI AND SAT AS IT LOSES ITS IDENTITY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A RESULT OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS SWD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMES REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES FRI PER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE HIGH THEN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD SAT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT LATE SUN...BUT SHARPLY INCREASE AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT MON WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N69W SW TO 27N76W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE NE 15-20 KT...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS THEY BECOME E-SE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COASTS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOW THAT WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE LIGHT N. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO N FLORIDA EARLY TONIGHT...FROM 31N70W TO 27N80W FRI AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN FROM 30N65W T0 27N73W SAT AND PUSH TO E OF AREA LATE SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD SWD OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME NE 15-20 KT SAT AND E 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUN...EXCEPT THE FAR W PART WHERE WINDS WILL BE SE-S 10-15 KT AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. BASED ON THE MOST RECENT NWP MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS NOTED ONES AS ALSO DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE SUN...AND QUICKLY REACH FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA MON. WINDS BEHIND IT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME NW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MAINLY OVER THE FAR N WATERS. EXPECT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TO ALSO INCREASE MON WITH A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE TO PRECEDE THE FRONT. A BROAD TROUGH WELL TO THE E OF THE AREA IS PROGRESSING WWD WITH TIME. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH PRES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO MAINTAIN AN ALREADY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALREADY PRESENT TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0115 UTC LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED NE-E WINDS OF MOSTLY 20 KT OVER THESE WATERS. SEVERAL SHIPS OVER THESE WATERS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS ARE STILL TO THE E OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS... IT IS EXPECTED THAT THEY TRANSLATE WESTWARD INTO THE E PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT SINCE THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALREADY EXISTS THERE. THESE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE LATE MON AS THE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE IN THE RANGE 20-25 KT AS SHOWN IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2340 UTC LAST NIGHT...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0253 UTC ALSO FROM LAST NIGHT. A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM 0600 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED NE 25 KT WINDS CLOSE TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC BREAKS DOWN JUST ENOUGH AS COLD FRONTS MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST. ELY TRADES ELSEWHERE WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND AGAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN...BUT DIMINISHING MON. ATLC TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT THEN SHIFT NE OF THE AREA SUN AND MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE