000 AGXX40 KNHC 270734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SW TO NEAR 26N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0030 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED AN ALMOST SOLID SWATH OF 25 KT NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SEVERAL RAIN-FLAGGED VECTORS OF 30 KT. ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT QUIKSCAT...ASCAT AND BUOY DATA SHOWED LESSER WIND SPEEDS (NLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 KT) OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ELY. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E THROUGH WED THEN WASH OUT BY MID WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND BECOMES RE-ENFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES BEGINNING THU. ANY COLD AIR SURGE INTO THE GULF WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO A MORE PREDOMINATELY ELY DIRECTION FRI AND SAT IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRES WITH RATHER LOW SEA STATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. SW N ATLC... SLY FLOW HAS INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AND A RATHER STRONG PRES GRADIENT E OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND REACH A PSN FROM ABOUT 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND REACHING FROM 31N66W TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY WED EVENING. FRONT THEM LIFTS N AS A WEAK BOUNDARY THU AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COAST ATTENDED BY LOW PRES OFF S CAROLINA COAST. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NW-N THE NE 15-20 KT WED MORNING ...BEFORE COMING AROUND TO THE E AT 10-15 KT WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER HIGH PRES. A LARGE TROUGH WELL E OF THE AREA IN THE HIGH SEAS ZONE IS MOVING WWD. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH PRES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO MAINTAIN AN ALREADY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALREADY PRESENT TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS. QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH RECENT AND CURRENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THESE WATERS. THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 7-10 FT IN LONG PERIOD NE-E SWELL. THESE SEA HEIGHTS ARE REASONABLY CLOSE TO MOST OF THE WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE INCLUDING THAT FROM THE UKMET. THE FNMOC GUIDANCE APPEARS ABOUT 2 FT TOO LOW N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SE PORTION TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WEAKENS SOME OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRI AND SAT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT QUICKLY BRUSHES THE NORTHERN WATERS FOLLOWED BY LIGHT NLY WINDS AND LOW SEA STATES AS INDICATE IN WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES. MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF 20 KT WINDS SHOULD STAY TO THE N OF 31N FRI AND SAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT INDICATED STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WITH SEAS 9-13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC BREAKS DOWN JUST ENOUGH AS COLD FRONTS MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN IS CONTINUING...AND WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TODAY. ELY TRADES ELSEWHERE WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT 15-20 KT OVER NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THROUGH MOST OF WED WITH SEAS U TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE THU AND FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE