000 AGXX40 KNHC 250702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRES 1009 MB OVER THE NW GULF WILL LIFT OUT TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS AND LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. CURRENT BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS TELL OF STRONG ELY FLOW N OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PICKS UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. FUNNELING EFFECTS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST MAY ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 25 TO 30 KT IN THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF BY MID WEEK AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT AND THE FRONT STALLS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN. ATLANTIC WATERS... BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW N OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED E-W ALONG ROUGHLY 28N THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN ENHANCED E AND SE FLOW ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND WAVES WILL REACH 8 FT OR SO N OF THE ANTILLES AS A RESULT THROUGH MON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUE AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE NE U.S. AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRES TO THE NE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E TUE AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...ALLOWING TRADES N OF THE ANTILLES TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TUE THROUGH THU. AN ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING STRENGTH OF THE NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BY MIDWEEK. GFS STALLS THE FRONT MAINLY N OF THE AREA AND KEEPS A WEEK TROUGH N OF THE BAHAMAS. ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG 28N AS PREVIOUS FRONT DID. GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FAVOR ECMWF AND INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY WED INTO THU. CARIBBEAN... MAIN DRIVER FOR CARIBBEAN WEATHER IS THE 1031 MB HIGH PRES EMERGING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADES NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP/BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON...THEN VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC...LEAVING FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN