000 AGXX40 KNHC 230725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOWS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO...WHERE THE NLY WINDS FUNNEL AGAINST INLAND TERRAIN. THE NEAR GALE FORCE WIND AREA WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT FLOW. 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM AROUND THE WESTERN GULF COAST INDICATE GENERALLY 20 KT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY MORNING PRIMARILY OVER THE NW GULF. FOR TODAY...UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS OUT AND IT STALLS...BECOMING ORIENTED E-W ALONG ROUGHLY 24N FROM SW FLORIDA TOWARD NE MEXICO...THEN STRADDLES THE MEXICAN COAST TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE STRONG NLY FLOW THERE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF SAT AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH NRN MEXICO. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD EARLY SAT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...AND BRING A REINFORCED COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED STRONGER NLY WINDS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. WILL BUMP UP WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG MEXICAN COAST FOR SUN NIGHT. THE LOW PRES LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MON. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUN INTO MON. WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUE AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. ATLANTIC WATERS... 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N64W. FRESH TO STRONG FLOW IS EVIDENT E AND S OF THE HIGH. AN EVENING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT SW FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS AND E OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW EMERGING OFF JACKSONVILLE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO THE WEST PALM BEACH AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NELY FLOW N OF THE FRONT...WHILE ELY WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY MAINLY ALONG 27N SAT INTO SUN...WITH VEERING FRESH WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY. THE DISSIPATES IN FAVOR OF STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE N...ALLOWING ELY WINDS S OF THE FRONT TO INCREASE AGAIN SUN THROUGH TUE. WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA WILL VEER SWLY AGAIN BY MON NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING REINFORCING FRONT. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LARGE PERIOD SWELL MAINLY E OF 70W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER E AND DIMINISH THROUGH SAT. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LARGE SWELL HAS ALREADY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO THE E OF THE ISLANDS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE S TO THE GUYANA COAST BY MIDDAY SAT PER WW3 MODEL. CARIBBEAN... SHIP...BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN CURRENTLY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LARGE NLY SWELL IS JUST STARTING TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES CURRENTLY...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT WITH SEA HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 8 FT. ALTHOUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND HIGH PRES AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE OVERALL PATTERN OF STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADES THROUGH MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN