000 AGXX40 KNHC 201710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1215 PM EST TUE NOV 20 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... DROPPED MENTION OF GALE ON THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL LOSE ITS SOUTHERLY PUSH STALLING E-W ACROSS CENTRAL GULF WATERS. SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SE OVER ATLC WATERS E OF FLORIDA...AND EACH MODEL RUN LOWERED STRENGTH OF NLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT. EVEN WITH STILL UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER...MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 30 KT. ALSO ADJUSTED ASSOCIATED SEA HEIGHTS. EXPECTING LOW PRES TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT NEAR 26N96W FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW TRACKING NNE ACROSS NW GULF ZONE AND WELL INLAND LA SUN. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT E OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT SAT AND THE LEADING SEGMENT INLAND NE GULF COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT. BY THEN...THE LOW PRES INLAND LA WILL SPAWN A NEW COLD BOUNDARY W SEMICIRCLE AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS WITH GFS SUGGESTING 30 KT MAX NW ZONE AND MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS SW ZONE SUN AFTERNOON. BASED ON OVERDONE MODEL PERFORMANCE ON THE CURRENT FRONT...WILL HOLD OFF MENTION GALE ON DAY 5. ATLC WATERS... PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED S ALONG 17N OVER TROPICAL ATLC ZONE WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF BOUNDARY IN EXTREME NE CARIBBEAN AS WELL. DRY COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ALSO WELL DEFINED ALONG 24.5N WITH THE EXPECTED SECONDARY N SURGE...AND LARGE N SWELLS...ALSO DEFINED BY SC FIELD OVER ATLC WATERS E OF 75W. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF STRENGTH OF NW FLOW OVER ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 65W AND 55W BUT KEPT MINIMAL GALE IN THIS MORNINGS HIGH SEAS...LATEST RUN SHOWS EVEN LESS NORTHERLY SURGE SO WILL DROP 24 HOUR GALE MENTION FROM 18 UTC 24 HOUR FORECAST WIND WAVE AND THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH SEAS UPDATE. ALL TYPICAL TRANSITIONAL SEASON UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT HIGH PRES CENTER TO SHIFT SE TO NEAR 30N75W LATE WED THEN SHIFT ESE TO NEAR 27N67W LATE FRI ALLOWING NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. NEXT FRONT NOT AS STRONG AND EXPECTED TO STALL E-W ALONG 25N LATE SAT AND MOVE N AS WEAK WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. PATTERN SUGGESTING NEXT COLD FRONT ALONG GA COAST MON AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN... NE TO SE TRADES OVER CARIBBEAN WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATION A LITTLE IN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST. INTENSE CONVECTION SW WATERS MAY FEED BACK INTO TODAYS GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. MOSTLY GOING WITH GFS EXCEPT TWEAKING NWW3 A TAD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON