000 AGXX40 KNHC 200725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST TUE NOV 20 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH EVENING SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY FLOW ACROSS GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 1025 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...IN PHASE WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING SE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE AND WED. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS LATE WED NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND THE OLDER 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE FRONT STALLING ROUGHLY N OF 25N AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THU INTO FRI. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BACK OFF THE WINDS...SHOWING 25 TO 30 KT FLOW OVER THE NW GULF EARLY THU...BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. THE INHERITED FORECAST CARRIES GALE CONDITIONS THU IN THE SW GULF. IT'S PLAUSIBLE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH CLOSE TO THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS...BRINGING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO GALE FORCE. SO WILL HOLD CURRENT WORDING IN THE OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FOR NOW. THIS MAY HAVE TO TAPERED DOWN IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...GFS AND ECMWF STILL DEVELOP A FRONTAL LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFF THE S TEXAS COAST BY SAT. ATLANTIC... FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IS NOTED ON SHIP REPORTS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW STRONG WINDS N OF 31N AND GENERALLY E OF 70W...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A GALE CENTER TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY...WITH GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH BY THU AS HIGH PRES SETTLE INTO THE AREA...BUT THE WW3 CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE NLY SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE WINDS IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA REACHING THE WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA COASTS FRI...STALLING GENERALLY N OF 28N SAT. CARIBBEAN... HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THU AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DISPLACES THE HIGH PRES EWD. THIS WILL IN TURN INCREASE WINDS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU BEHIND FRONT GMZ080 AND GMZ082. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN