000 AGXX40 KNHC 191634 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11130 AM EST MON NOV 19 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RETURN FLOW TROUGH ALONG TEXAS COAST ACCOMPANIED BY 5 TO 10 KT WIND SHIFT AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND DURING THIS AFTERNOONS SEABREEZE...AND DISSIPATE INLAND TEXAS TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO S BY SUNRISE WED OVER W PORTION AND ELSEWHERE WED NIGHT AS FRONT WINDS UP OVER OKLAHOMA...MOVING SE AND OFFSHORE TEXAS WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING EACH RUN THEY ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ATTM. HOWEVER THIS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON STRENGTH OF N WINDS BEHIND FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE POSTED GALE EXPECTATION WED-THU AS IS BUT WILL TWEAK MAX SEAS DOWN A TAD. FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO NOT ONLY STALL OVER EASTERN WATERS BUT WESTERN WATERS AS WELL... ROUGHLY ALONG 23-24N FRI MORNING WITH FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT NEAR 25N95W FRI AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER THEREAFTER...BUT GENERALLY SUGGEST LOW WILL TRACK N AND INLAND NW GULF COAST SAT DRAGGING REMNANTS FRONT N ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS. BET WE SEE THIS PATTERN 20-25 TIMES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT MAY. ATLC WATERS... PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH STILL DISSECTS N PORTION OF ATLC TROPICAL ZONE. I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS BOUNDARY AS THIS MORNINGS QSCAT AND SSMI INDICATE N-NE WINDS IN 15-20 KT RANGE N OF BOUNDARY TO ABOUT 24N THROUGHOUT THE SE BAHAMAS AND AS FAR W AS THE CAY SAL BANK. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS SOME CONVECTION ALONG N COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. A COLD FRONT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...IDENTIFIED BY A DISTINCT LINE OF TOWERING CU EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO EXTREME NE FLORIDA ATTM. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING ESE ACROSS S GEORGIA ATTM WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ABOUT TO COLLAPSE TO ITS N WHICH WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ONE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE SURGE THAT WILL DRIVE THIS FRONT SE OF ATLC ZONE LATE TUE...AND RESULT IN A MINIMAL GALE OVER ATLC WATERS W OF FRONT...BUT E OF THE ATLC OFFSHORE FORECAST BORDERED ALONG 65W. THIS GOOD BLAST OF N SWELLS WILL ADVECT S OVER THE ATLC WATERS E OF 68W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 15N FRI AND TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA SAT. MAX SEAS 18 TO 20 FT IN GAE WINDS NEAR 30N60W THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN... MORE TYPICAL ELY TRADES HAVE RESUMED AS WEAK FRONTAL FEATURES ARE NOW N AND NE OF THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS A FAIRLY SWIFT 20-25 KT...POSSIBLY ENHANCED SOME ELY SURGE ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 73W AND 87W. SEAS MAXING ABOUT 12 FT BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE A BIT EXCEPT INCREASE IN EXPOSED NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES IN N POST FRONTAL SWELLS MENTIONED ABOVE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU BEHIND FRONT GMZ080 AND GMZ082. FORECASTER NELSON