000 AGXX40 KNHC 190622 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM EST MON NOV 19 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE GULF AT THE MOMENT AS HIGH PRES REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATEST QSCAT PASS...BUOY AND SHIP DATA SHOW 10-15 KT E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE IN E SWELL. THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 21N-25N W OF 97W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW W OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE E PORTION WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE ERN WATERS ON TUE AND WED. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST IS LATE WED NIGHT WHEN A COLD ENTERS THE NW CORNER. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS A PORTION OF THE NW AND SW WATERS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. 00Z GFS RUN APPEARS TO HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS BUT AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY CHANGES BASED SOLELY ON THIS RUN. FRONT BEGINS TO LOSE SUPPORT ON FRI AND WILL LIKELY STALL E-W ACROSS THE REGION. CARIBBEAN... MORE TYPICAL ELY TRADES HAVE RESUMED AS WEAK FRONTAL FEATURES ARE NOW N AND NE OF THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS A FAIRLY SWIFT 20-25 KT...POSSIBLY ENHANCED SOME A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 71W AND 85W TONIGHT...ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND W CARIB S OF ABOUT 17N...STRONGEST NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SEAS ARE UP TO 10-12 FT BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COMPARISON WITH CURRENT BUOY REPORTS. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE VERY SLIGHTLY OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THU AS SFC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRI AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS N OF THE AREA. ATLC WATERS... WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE SW ATLC GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 21N BETWEEN 63W-71W. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MAINLY S OF 24N E OF 74W. FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ...INCLUDING TROPICAL PORTION...IS FAIRLY RELAXED OUT OF THE NE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ANOTHER N OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CHANGE ACROSS NE WATERS AS LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE JUST N OF BERMUDA. SOME MODELS SUGGEST WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE JUST E OF THE AREA ON WED ON THE S SIDE OF THE MODELED LARGE LOW. THIS IS JUST BEYOND THE TIME FRAME FOR 06Z HIGH SEAS PACKAGE BUT A GALE WARNING MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT. ELY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TUE AND WED AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX IN THIS AREA THU AND FRI AS NEXT COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE NW CORNER. N TO NW WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS LIKE GULF OF MEX. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE CONDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU BEHIND FRONT GMZ080 AND GMZ082. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI