000
AGXX40 KNHC 181546
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

RELEASING EARLY FOR HEADS UP ON WARNINGS  

GULF OF MEXICO...SLY RETURN FLOW WILL PULSE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT 
TONIGHT AND INTO MON MAINLY WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT PER SHIP PHHB AND BUOY 42019 THIS MORNING. 
WINDS OVER NW PART W OF 96W ALREADY W OF DUE S WITH COASTAL 
TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY PRECIP...INCHING ITS WAY E ACROSS TX 
COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS BECOME NLY NW OF TROUGH LATE TODAY AND 
TONIGHT BUT SEAS CONTINUE 3-5 FT IN E AND SE SWELL. GRADIENT 
ALSO A LITTLE TIGHT FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 92W WITH 15-20 KT SEAS 
IN 4-7 FT RANGE HIGHEST IN STREAM E OF 85W. COASTAL TROUGH STILL 
EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND DISSIPATE INLAND TX MON AFTERNOON. WINDS 
GRADUALLY BECOME SLY WITH GRADIENT TIGHT SE WATERS TUE THEN 
DIMINISHE SOME WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT...STRONG...COLD FRONT 
EXPECTED TX COAST WED NIGHT...NOTE ABOUT 6 HOURS LATER THAN 
YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST 
MINIMAL GALE NW GULF ZONE AND GALE TO 40 KT SW GULF ZONE...THUS 
POSTED EXPECTED HEADING IN BOTH ZONES THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. 
FRONT LOSING PUSH OVER SE WATERS SUNSET FRI WITH 20 TO 30 KT ALL 
WATERS NW OF FRONT AND SEAS 7-13 FT. LIGHT SLY WINDS AHEAD OF 
FRONT WITH GFS SUGGESTING FRONT MAY STALL AND BEGIN TO MOVE W 
SAT.    
         
ATLC WATERS...FRONTAL REMNANTS PERSISTING OVER EXTREME SE WATERS 
AND AGAIN EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. A 
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO NW WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY 
SHOWERS...A ROPE CLOUD IDENTIFYING BOUNDARY. HIGH PRES AHEAD OF 
FRONT SLOWING ITS SE PROGRESS BUT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE OF 
BERMUDA AS A SECOND NLY SURGE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WATERS MON 
WITH FRONT RACING SE THROUGH AREA TUE. GFS REALLY LIKES THIS 
SECOND SURGE AND INCREASES N FLOW TO MINIMAL GALE OVER WATERS S 
OF BERMUDA LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...PLAN TO POST WARNING IN 
LATER HIGH SEAS FORECASTS. ELSEWHERE WINDS VEER FROM N TO E AT 
15 TO 20 KT WIND WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY NW WATERS WED NIGHT 
SETTING UP AGAIN FOR NEXT FRONT OFF GA COAST AROUND SUNRISE 
FRI...NOTE ABOUT 9 HOURS LATER THAN YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. SEEMS 
LIKE THIS FRONT MAY STALL OVER NW ATLC WATERS AROUND SUNRISE 
SAT.  

CARIBBEAN...A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES STILL DISSIPATING 
OVER WATERS NW OF LINE FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. N TO 
NE WINDS IN 20 KT RANGE OVER WATERS NW OF THIS SAME LINE WHILE 
25-30 KT NOTED NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST. E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT 
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN DUE TO E SURGE ACCOMPANYING TWO TROPICAL 
WAVES. WAVES ALONG 82W AND 66W THIS MORNING.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.   

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE. GALE CONDS EXPECTED WED AND THU BEHIND FRONT GMZ080 AND 
GMZ082.

FORECASTER NELSON