000
AGXX40 KNHC 171802
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EST SAT NOV 17 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PULSE BETWEEN 15 TO 
20 KT TONIGHT AND INTO SUN THEN RELAX SOME MIDDAY SUN AS A WEAK 
RETURN FLOW TROUGH SHIFTS E AND JUST OFFSHORE NE TX AND SW LA 
COASTS. VARIABLE WINDS NW OF TROUGH AND MOSTLY E 10 KT WINDS 
ELSEWHERE WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING TO SUPPORT 15 KT SOUTHERN 
WATERS SUN AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 20 KT RANGE MON NIGHT AS 
COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. TIGHT GRADIENT 
CONTINUES SE WATERS TUE THEN DIMINISHES WED WHILE E TO SE WINDS 
OVER REMAINDER AREA WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO S IN ADVANCE OF NEXT 
STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TEXAS COAST ABOUT SUNSET WED. MODEL 
CONSENSUS IS NORTHERLY POST FRONT WINDS IN 20-30 KT RANGE 
THU.          

ATLC WATERS...FRONTAL REMNANTS OVER SE WATERS AT MIDDAY EXPECTED 
TO DISSOLVE LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NE PORTION OF 
THE ATLC ZONE E TO 55W IS ACCOMPANIED BY 8 TO 12 FT SEAS WILL 
SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 8 FT SUN AS WINDS VEER TO ENE ALL WATERS...WITH  
EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NW PORTION WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE. WINDS OVER NW PORTION EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO WNW AS COLD 
FRONT SLIPS INTO NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON. SEEMS LIKE INITIAL 
WIND SHIFT IS ALONG A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A SECOND... 
MUCH STRONGER SURGE ARRIVING MON...PUSHING FRONT TO POSITION 
FROM BERMUDA TO WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE MON. A THIRD NORTHERLY 
SURGE AT 20-30 KT ARRIVES TUE OVER WATERS WELL E OF BAHAMAS WITH 
SEAS IN 10-15 KT RANGE ALONG 31N. ELSEWHERE N 15 KT...AND A FEW 
AREAS 20 KT...EXPECTED WED WITH ENTIRE PATTERN SETTING UP AGAIN 
FOR NEXT FRONT OFF GA COAST LATE THU.

CARIBBEAN...A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NOTED TODAY OVER 
WATERS NW OF LINE FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. N TO NE 
WINDS IN 20 KT RANGE OVER WATERS NW OF THIS SAME LINE WHILE 
20-25 KT NOTED NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST. E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT 
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN DUE TO E SURGE ACCOMPANYING TWO TROPICAL 
WAVES. EXPECT WE WILL LOSE WAVE POSITION IN W CARIBBEAN EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.   

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON