000 AGXX40 KNHC 141817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 117 PM EDT WED NOV 14 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 30N WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...WHERE WINDS ARE UP TO 20 KT AS REPORTED BY NOAA BUOY 41046. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS NEAR SE FLORIDA WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND OUT OF THE N. THE WINDS E OF THE BAHAMAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES E...THEN MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA/N FLORIDA COAST ON THU. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU/THU NIGHT BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES NE. THE UKMET WAVE MODEL BUILDS SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT FASTER THAN THE WW3...AND EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THIS IS OFTEN THE CASE. THEREFORE I EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT BY THU EVENING AND POTENTIALLY REACH UP TO 13 FT OR SO FRI MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SETTLES ALONG 30N SAT AND SUN WITH GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS INTRODUCES ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE N EARLY MON WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE N TO AT LEAST 20 KT. CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC... SURFACE RIDGING TO THE N IS PROMOTING EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AT THE MOMENT...BUT WINDS ARE ONLY AS HIGH AS 20 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N TO 20 KT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FAIRLY QUICKLY HOWEVER...AND MAY BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY SUN. THE HIGH WHICH WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 25 KT. E OF THE ISLANDS...ELY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE MAINLY S OF 15N BUT WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SE/S N OF 18N THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING IS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF AS WELL WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OUT OF THE N. 12Z GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE ARE BOTH SHOWING WINDS REACHING 35 KT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN ABOUT 0900Z AND 1800Z THU OVER THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO HGX...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A GALE WARNING CONSIDERING THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EVENT BUT WILL MAKE MENTION OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 12 FT BY THU AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...IN LINE WITH UKMET WAVE MODEL IN LIEU OF WW3. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE GULF LATE THU AND FRI WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ALONG THE N GULF COAST. THE HIGH PUSHES E TO THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER SAT THROUGH MON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS DURING THAT TIME. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG