000 AGXX40 KNHC 121826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 PM EDT MON NOV 12 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. BUOYS 42002 AND 42055 ARE BOTH REPORTING A STEADY 20 KT OUT OF THE SE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SUPPORTED 20 KNOT FLOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS S...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE/WED. THE HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THU...PUSHING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THU. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF 20 TO 25 KT NLY FLOW OVER THE NE GULF BY THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS BACK OFF THIS AND KEEP 15 TO 20 KT FLOW. WINDS VEER E TO SE AND DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF ON FRI AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ATLC. CARIBBEAN... BUOY 42056 IN THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST S OF YUCATAN CHANNEL IS REPORTING 10 FT SEAS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO 30 KT...BUT THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO NEARBY CONVECTION. GRADIENT FLOW HOWEVER REMAINS A HEALTHY 20 TO 25 KT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS DRIFTING SLOWLY W OFF THE COSTA RICAN COAST...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AS THE LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX SHIFTS ONSHORE LATER TODAY...SURFACE PRES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL RISE SLIGHTLY AND ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUE...LEAVING MODERATE TO FRESH ELY OVER MOSTLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WIND WAVES AND SWELL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC... ASCAT DATA AND SHIP/BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 KT MAINLY S OF 25N...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE ATLC WATERS TO THE N BEHIND A DISSIPATING TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION...UP TO 8 FT NLY SWELL LINGERS IN THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 70W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS S INTO THE AREA OFF N FLORIDA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY ALONG 30N BY WED...WITH MODERATE ELY TO THE S. THE CHANGE UP WILL ARRIVE BY THU AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SWLY FLOW WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA E OF N FLORIDA ON THU. STRONG NLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BY THU NIGHT IN THE AREA W OF JACKSONVILLE AND N OF GRAND BAHAMA...UP TO 8 FT SWELL IN TOW. GFS SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING ALONG 28N ON SAT AS THE MAIN SUPPORT LIFTS OUT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN