000
AGXX40 KNHC 101705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 PM EDT SAT NOV 10 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1021 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. 
THE LIGHT PRES PATTERN IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW 
ACROSS GULF WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST 
WHERE SLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE NOTED IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND 
SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE 
CAROLINAS THROUGH MON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. 
MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND THE 
LOWER PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CREATE A GRADIENT TIGHT 
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
GULF BY MON. THIS WILL DIMINISH TUE AND WED AS THE SURFACE HIGH 
PRES SHIFTS S TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NE GULF AHEAD OF 
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT DIGGING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. 
LOOKING AHEAD...NO CHANGES UNTIL A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF 
FRI POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED NLY FLOW TO THAT AREA.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC...
SCATTEROMETER DATA PAINT A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY 26N 
FROM THE FLORIDA COAST TO AROUND 70W. THE TRAILING EDGE OF A 
COLD FRONT IS SKIRTING TO THE N OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM 31N70W TO 
28N73W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO LOW 
PRES 1011 MB NEAR 21N67W TO THE DOMINICAN COAST NEAR 19N70W. 
FRESH WLY FLOW IS NOTED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER 
DATA W OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT 
ASSOCIATED NLY SWELL UP TO 8 FT WILL INVADE THE AREA N OF 29N 
GENERALLY W OF 60W SUN INTO MON. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT 
BUILDS S EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW OVER MUCH 
OF THE AREA S OF 28N MON AND TUE. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH 
ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH ASSOCIATED ELY SWELL TO 8 FT OVER THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

CARIBBEAN...
LOW PRES 1009 MB IS ANALYZED N OF PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION AROUND THIS LOW SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL THE 
SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR BANDS 
OF CONVECTION. BUOY/SHIP OBSERVATIONS HINT OF A WEAK TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 17N82W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE N IS ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA BY 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS 
THE HIGH OVER THE GULF SHIFTS E. 

WARNINGS...
ATLC OCEAN...
NONE.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN