000 AGXX40 KNHC 071906 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED NOV 07 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT FROM FORT MYERS THROUGH 25N86W TO FAR S TEXAS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE S AND WEAKEN FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES E OF THE GULF TONIGHT. WINDS N OF THE FRONT E OF 93W ARE N-NE 15-20 KT WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE FROM THE NE-E W OF 93W. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND MOVES E OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND VEER TO THE E-SE W OF 93W THU THROUGH SUN...BUT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT SUN AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE S PLAINS. PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT OVER MOST OF THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON...EXCEPT THE FAR W PART WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8 FT IN INCREASING RETURN SLY FLOW. SW N ATLC... ATLC STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N65W SW TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 25N70W THEN SW TO NW HAITI IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE MAINLY N 15 KT WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS REPORTING 20 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1018 UTC THIS MORNING ALSO SHOWED MAINLY 15 KT WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE FRONT WITH A FEW 20 KT RAIN FLAGGED WIND BARBS. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO 28N81W PUSHES SE REACHING A LINE FROM 31N72W TO S FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND FROM 31N68W TO THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY THU NIGHT. FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM 30N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS FRI. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NW-N 15-20 KT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY THE NWP MODELS. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE TO NW-N 10-15 KT FRI AND SAT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SAT AND SUN OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF NW-N WINDS BRUSHES THE AREA THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE FAR NE PART MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN A N SWELL N OF ABOUT 29N. NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW E OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 25N71W WILL DEVELOP SOME THROUGH THU WITH LIGHT WINDS TO ITS E AND S. MODELS...HOWEVER DIFFER SOME ON THE INITIAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW. GFS SHOWED A WEAK CYCLONIC SIGNATURE NEAR 24N71W THIS MORNING...WHEREAS THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE NAM WHERE ABOUT 3 DEG TO THE E. LOOKING AT THE HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING IT SHOWED VERY ILL-DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 24N71W. THIS MATCHES THE SIMILAR CLOUD SIGNATURE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. BUOY 41046 NEAR 24N71W HAS BEEN REPORTING LOWERING PRES TENDENCIES AND ITS WIND HAD VEERED FROM SE AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING TO NW AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS...THE GFS ITSELF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL LOW PSN...BUT IN ANY EVENT ALL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT LOW RAPIDLY LIFTS NE OF THE AREA BY THU EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF SLY WINDS TO 20 KT MY BE POSSIBLE TO THE SE AND S OF THE LOW BUT MOST LIKELY JUST ALONG OR TO THE E OF 65W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NW HAITI TO ALONG E JAMAICA AND SW TO NEAR NE NICARAGUA IS ATTENDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM TO ITS N AND W OF 80W. BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE 20 KT WINDS TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...SHIP WITH CALL SIGN 9VVP REPORTED NEAR 18N82W THIS MORNING REPORTED NE 20 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...BUT IN A MORE DECREASED AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN REINFORCING THESE WINDS. NE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MON ACROSS THE NW SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN AS STRONG HIGH PRES PRESSES SWD OVER FLORIDA...THE SE GULF AND W ATLANTIC WATERS. OTHERWISE TRADES WILL BE MOSTLY 15 KT...EXCEPT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING THERE SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 8 FT...BUT PERHAPS REACH UP TO 8 FT IN AN E SWELL OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE