000 AGXX40 KNHC 061717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1220 PM EDT TUE NOV 06 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SLIDES INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING AND MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N97W BY LATE WED. FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY 20-25 KT WINDS WHICH DECREASE TO 15-20 KT BY LATE WED. WINDS DECREASE FURTHER TO 10-15 KT AND VEER TO THE SE W OF 90W THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. RETURN FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT W OF 95W LATE SAT AND SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF W OF 88W AND INCREASES TO 20-25 KT BY LATE SUN. SW N ATLC... ATLC STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N65W TO E CUBA APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING TO THE WEST AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A 1045 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A NARROW RIBBON...120 NM OF 20 KT WINDS NW OF THE FRONT. FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE WED AND FROM 30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE THU. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WED THEN DECREASE TO 15-20 KT THU. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FRI AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE WELL OFF THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLC. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/UKMET AND CMC MODELS SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION IS FURTHER OFFSHORE NEAR 33N66W BY LATE SAT WHICH WILL KEEP STRONGER N TO NW WINDS...20-25 KT AT THIS TIME CONFINED TO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA INTO SUN. SHOULD THE LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND BE STRONGER ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS OVER THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA. THE PICTURE HOPEFULLY BECOMES CLEARER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LATER MODEL RUNS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT STALLED ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA TO THE N COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT S OF 19N. A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NE WINDS OF 20 KT NW OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THU AND FRI AND BRIDGE ACROSS A REINFORCING FRONT TO THE N OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE TRADES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB