000 AGXX40 KNHC 051758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT MON NOV 05 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES HAS BEEN EDGING EWD ACROSS THE SRN U.S. OVER THE PAST A DAY OR SO. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO LIGHTEN AND SHIFT ELY W OF ABOUT 90W. BUOYS SHOW SEAS SUBSIDING WITH 3 FT OR LESS OBSERVED ROUGHLY N OF 25N. MODERATE TO FRESH NELY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE S CENTRAL AND E GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS STILL TIGHTENED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE N GULF COAST LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED ENHANCING THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEYOND THAT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX AS WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WISE...ABUNDANT SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING VERY NICE CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPCOMING FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL STALLED ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TOWARD THE N COAST OF HONDURAS. AN 11Z QSCAT PASS REVEALED 20-25 KT NELY WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND BUOY 42056 IS OSCILLATING BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FT SEAS. NWW3 GUIDANCE IS RIGHT ON TARGET SO ACCORDINGLY MAX SEAS ARE LIKELY ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FIZZLE THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL ONLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WRN-MOST CARIB AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING E ACROSS THE SRN U.S. THE CENTRAL...E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ARE RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY. THERE IS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS AS IT WILL LIKELY FRACTURE OR BECOME PARTIALLY ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NW. SO LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE TRADES TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS. SW NORTH ATLC... NRN PORTION OF STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. QSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED SEVERAL 20 KT VECTORS WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOCAL WINDS ALONG WITH NE SWELL IS PRODUCING KEEPING SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND ABOUT 77W OR THE ERN BAHAMAS. BESIDES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT ...PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE REGION TO THE W OF THE BOUNDARY...AS NOTED BY THIN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE AIRMASS IS MORE TROPICAL TO THE E OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT ELY WINDS. HOWEVER...NELY SWELL IS STILL PRODUCING SEAS NEAR 8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND NE SWELL SUBSIDES. THEREAFTER...THE MAIN FEATURE BECOMES A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW WATERS ON WED. NLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE WED AND THU BEHIND THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI