000 AGXX40 KNHC 050647 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST MON NOV 05 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. TWO IMPRESSIVE FEATURES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT OVER THE WRN HEMISPHERE..ONE IS A LARGE CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 33N32W AND THE OTHER A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. S OF 30N MOSTLY WEAK HIGH PRES AT MID LEVELS WITH A EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST E OF THE NE ANTILLES TONIGHT MOVING WNW 10 KT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 1023 MB HIGH WAS OVER THE NW GULF PRODUCING ENOUGH GRADIENT S OF 25N AND W OF THE FRONT TO HAVE NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. CYCLONIC GRADIENT OVER EXTREME NE CORNER OF FORECAST AREA WITH NWLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WINDS MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. LATER DAY 1 STRONG UPPER VORTEX OVER ERN ATLC DRIFTING SSW. THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES NEARLY STATIONARY. LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS NOT SUPPORTED WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR THUS FLATTENING OUT S OF 35N. NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE OVER THE WRN GREATLAKES SHOULD HELP RE-ESTABLISH LONGWAVE TROUGH. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 FRONT DISSIPATING OVER ATLC WATERS AS WELL AS OVER CARIB BUT BACKING UP ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO KEEP NE WINDS 20 KT S OF 25N. SE GULF WINDS TO 20 KT OTHERWISE GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. LIKEWISE FOR CARIB E OF FRONT. NE FORECAST AREA WINDS DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. FOR DAY 2 STRONG SHORTWAVE WITH LARGE POOL OF COLD AIR DROPPING ESE OVER ERN GREATLAKES LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG 77W. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY W OF 80W THUS SUPPORTING A LITTLE COOLER AIRMASS THAN LAST ONE. CLOSED VORTEX OVER ERN ATLC DRIFTS SSW TO 30N35W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES TO NW GULF WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. LOW CENTER NEAR 30N36W WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N E OF 42W. PERSISTENT NE WINDS TO 20 KT NW CARIB AND SW BAHAMAS. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 MOST OF COLD AIR ALOFT LIFTING NE INTO SE CANADA WITH LESSER AMOUNT SUPPORTING TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP NWLY FLOW ALOFT W OF 75W. CLOSED VORTEX OVER ERN ATLC WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT NE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF NE FL COAST AND EXTENDS SW TO YUCATAN. MODERATE HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY MOVING EWD. NE WINDS OF 20 KT W OF FRONT TO 90W. REMAINDER OF REGION UNDER WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR DAY 4 LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO SEPARATE INTO TWO BRANCHES WITH NRN PORTION HEADING E N OF 35N AND SRN BRANCH CONTINUING SE ALONG 75W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD OVER TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND NW CARIB BUT WEAKENING. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER SE CONUS EXTENDING SW OVER WRN GULF THUS NE WINDS DECREASE W OF FRONT TO 10 TO 15 KT. WEAK PRES GRADIENT ELSEWHERE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. FOR DAY 5 NEW SHORTWAVE MOVING SE OVER OH VALLEY LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 65W AND 80W N OF 20N. MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 OLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATING SE BAHAMAS TO 31N58W. WINDS W OF FRONT TO 85W MOSTLY NE 10 KT. WEAK HIGH OVER N CENTRAL GULF DRIFTING E. SOME INCREASE IN ATLC TRADES S OF 20N AS WEAK ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGE. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG