000
AGXX40 KNHC 041817
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN NOV 04 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES WITH SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...THOUGH 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS STILL COMMON ESPECIALLY S OF 26N E OF 
93W. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY WEEK AS 
HIGH PRES MOVES E ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...NE WINDS 20 TO 
OCCASIONALLY 25 KT MAY STILL AFFECT THE AREA NEAR THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL AT TIMES...KEEPING STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN 
THE REGION. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE NORTHERN 
GULF COAST DURING TUESDAY...AND MOVE QUICKLY TO BETWEEN SW 
FLORIDA AND NE MEXICO BY WED. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...SO SEE NO REASON TO 
STRAY FROM THOSE SOLUTIONS. N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 
POSSIBLY 25 KT BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRES 
BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS RELAX THROUGH THU. 

CARIBBEAN...
THE WEAK LOW OFFSHORE THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS BEGINNING TO 
MOVE INLAND AND THUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. 
REGARDLESS...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW...HIGH PRES NW OF 
THE AREA...AND A STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN ERN CUBA AND NE 
HONDURAS WILL KEEP NE WINDS 20-25 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 
FT...IN MOSTLY SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES. WINDS/SEAS ONLY EXPECTED 
TO RELAX SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT LINGERING SFC TROUGHING WILL 
PERSIST OVER THE NW PORTION BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 
HONDURAS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE ERN CARIB 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SW OF ATLC RIDGING. A TROPICAL WAVE 
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 55W IS ONLY 
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DISRUPT THIS PATTERN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 
MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SPLITTING NW AND 
GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. 

SW NORTH ATLC...
SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BETWEEN 30N65W AND 
ERN CUBA. THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE. PLEASANT...MOSTLY 
DRY WEATHER IS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS 
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SHOULD PERSIST 
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. NW/N WINDS HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED BEHIND THE 
FRONT TO BELOW 20 KT...THOUGH MODERATE TO STRONG N/NE SWELLS 
PERSIST. MWW3 SEEMS ON TRACK WITH THE WAVE HEIGHTS BUT REMAINS A 
FEW SECONDS OFF WITH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE AN IMPACT 
IN THE SURF ZONE. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM W TO E 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  

AS MENTIONED IN GULF SECTION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE 
FLORIDA LATE TUE AND WED. STRONG NLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND 
THE FRONT...ALLOWING ANOTHER BOUT OF 8-11 FT...STEEP NLY SWELL 
AND WIND WAVES TO DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED 
TO RELAX THROUGH THU...AS WEAKENING HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST STATES. 

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
NONE.   

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WILLIS