000
AGXX40 KNHC 031802
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT NOV 03 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES WITH SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...THOUGH 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS STILL COMMON ESPECIALLY S OF 26N E OF 
85W. THIS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED NEAR THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH OFF THE TEXAS 
COAST TUE AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SE GULF BY WED. ECMWF AND GFS 
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS 
FRONT...WHICH AT THIS POINT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE OVERLY ACTIVE AS 
FAR AS PRECIP GOES. THE REINFORCING HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT 
EXPECTED TO ALLOW NE WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...MAINLY FOR THE 
MIDDLE GULF BY LATE TUE/WED. 

CARIBBEAN...
MAIN STORY IS THE SFC LOW OFF THE N COAST OF NICARAGUA WHICH HAS 
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO 
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES 
SLOWLY W-SW. IF IT DOES BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE...CHANGES WILL 
UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN 
THIS LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...AND HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW 20-25 KT NE 
WINDS TO BLOW OVER THE NW PORTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AND AT THAT TIME THE 
GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION SHOULD RELAX. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE TRADES GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE ERN CARIB OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...SW OF ATLC RIDGING. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 
THE TROPICAL ATLC...CURRENTLY ALONG 50W...IS ONLY EXPECTED TO 
SLIGHTLY DISRUPT THIS PATTERN. GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME OF THE 
ENERGY SPLITTING NW AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE ATLC FRONTAL 
SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

SW NORTH ATLC...
THE EXTRATROPICAL FORM OF FORMER HURRICANE NOEL HAS LIFTED WELL 
N OF THE AREA...AND CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING. ALLOWED 
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE N PORTION OF THE AREA TO EXPIRE BASED 
ON THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS AND BUOY/SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LARGE N 
TO NE SWELL WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH. NOTICED THE 03/0600 UTC 
WW3 GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE UNDERDONE THIS MORNING ON BOTH THE 
HEIGHTS AND PERIOD OF THE N/NE SWELL...BUT THE 1200 UTC 
MULTIGRID WW3/WNA IS A LITTLE MORE ON TRACK WITH THE HEIGHTS. 
PERIODS ARE STILL A LITTLE LOW BY A FEW SECONDS...WHICH WILL 
PRIMARILY BE AN IMPACT IN THE SURF ZONE. CONDITIONS ALSO 
EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS IN THE GULF STREAM WITH THE 
SWELL MEETING THE OPPOSING CURRENT. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO 
SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH MON. 

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGHING 
TRAILING S FROM THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT 
BRINGS INCREASING N WINDS/SEAS LATE TUE INTO WED...MAINLY FOR 
THE NW PORTION.  



WARNINGS...
ATLC...
NONE.   

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WILLIS