000
AGXX40 KNHC 020508
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES TONIGHT OVER SE 
CONUS MOVING E 25 KT. MID LEVEL RIDGES OVER WRN GULF AND OVER 
MID ATLC. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT NOEL UPGRADED TO HURRICANE NEAR 
27.3N76.1W AT 0300 UTC MOVING NNE AT 17 KT. FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE 
OVER MID ATLC TONIGHT PRODUCING 25 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER ATLC N OF 
25N E OF 70W. GULF WINDS NE 20 TO 25 KT E OF 90W TONIGHT WITH 
COLD FRONT AND GRADIENT FLOW AROUND DEPARTING NOEL. NW CARIB 
WINDS NLY 20 KT OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. 

LATER DAY 1 SHORTWAVE OVER SE CONUS INTERCEPTING NOEL AS IT 
MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION S OF 31N. MID LEVEL RIDGE IN 
PLACE ALONG 60W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 GALE CONDITIONS OVER 
SW ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING 
NOEL. ATLC STILL LIT UP WIND WISE N OF 25N E OF 68W WITH 25 TO 
30 KT. ERN GULF WINDS NLY 15 TO 20 KT. GFS MODEL SHOWS WEAK LOW 
OVER CARIB NEAR 16N80W ON TAIL END OF TROUGH. 

FOR DAY 2 STRONG WESTERLIES DRIVING SHORTWAVE OFF E COAST. FLOW 
BECOMING MORE NWLY W OF 90W. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER SRN 
GULF E OVER SRN BAHAMAS NE TO 35N50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 WINDS 
OVER ATLC DECREASE WITH NOEL MOVING WELL N OF AREA. MODERATE 
RIDGE OVER MID ATLC SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING E THUS WINDS 
DECREASE TO MOSTLY 20 KT N OF 28N E OF 60W. ERN GULF WINDS 
REMAIN N TO NE 15 KT AS WELL AS NW CARIB. COLD FRONT MOVES TO 
NEAR 70W LATE DAY 2.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OFF E COAST OF 
CONUS AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES TO 80W. MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW W OF 
80W N OF 28N WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH 1025 MB MOVING TO NW 
GULF. COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ALONG 31N61W TO SE 
BAHAMAS WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. NW CARIB WINDS N 
TO NE 20 KT. GFS MODEL SHOWS LOW OVER TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N38W.

FOR DAY 4 NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE OVER NW GREATLAKES 
TIGHTENS NWLY FLOW OVER ERN CONUS. STRONG CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW 
OVER ERN ATLC NEAR 32N32W MOVING SSW 20 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL LOW 
CENTER OVER ERN CARIB. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 CONTINENTAL HIGH 
1021 MB WEAKENING OVER N GULF COAST AS IT MOVES EWD. NE WINDS TO 
20 KT OVER BAHAMAS AND NW CARIB CONTINUE. POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW 
NEAR 15N38W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. MODEL SHOWS SURFACE LOW NEAR 
31N32W DEVELOPING NLY WINDS N OF 25N E OF 40W TO 25 KT. 

FOR DAY 5 STRONG UPPER TROUGH WRAPPING UP OVER SE CANADA 
PRODUCING STRONG NWLY FLOW W OF 80W. STRONG CUTOFF LOW NEAR 
30N29W NEARLY STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 NEXT COLD FRONT 
MOVING RAPIDLY SE OVER NRN GULF WATERS WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. SE 
GULF WINDS NE 15 TO 20 KT. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 
MOSTLY LIGHT. TROPICAL LOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE TOWARD 
OTHER LOW CENTER E OF AREA.

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
AMZ080...HURRICANE N OF 25N BETWEEN 68W-79W.
         GALE ELSEWHERE N 26N E OF 80W.  

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG