000
AGXX40 KNHC 010533
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

STRONG BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT N OF 30N WITH TWO 
EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVES..ONE OVER MID ATLC ALONG 40W AND THE 
OTHER OVER THE ERN GREATLAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SE CONUS 
TONIGHT EXTENDS SW OVER NE GULF. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN 
OVER REGION EXCEPT FOR WEAKNESS IN PRES FIELD BETWEEN 70W AND 
85W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT T.S NOEL S OF ANDROS ISL IN BAHAMAS 
DRIFTING N 3 KT HAS STRENGTHENED SOME SINCE LEAVING CUBA. 
FORECAST TO MOVE N THEN NE WITH POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING. 
ELSEWHERE HIGH PRES MOVING E OVER W CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING 
STRONG NE AND E WINDS N OF 27N W OF 45W. GULF AND CARIB WINDS 
ALSO MODERATE TO FRESH.

LATER DAY 1 SHORTWAVE OVER SE FORECAST TO PHASE IN WITH STRONG 
TROUGH OVER GREATLAKES AND CONTINUE EWD. ON THE SURFACE LATER 
DAY 1 LOOK FOR NOEL TO FEEL INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE AND HEAD NNE. 
WINDS ABOVE NORMAL MOST SECTIONS EXCEPT SRN PORTION OF CARIB AND 
ATLC WATERS S OF 15N.

FOR DAY 2 GFS MODEL SHOWS SECOND SHORTWAVE IN SRN BRANCH OF 
WESTERLIES MOVING E OFF SE COAST AND TAKING NOEL RAPIDLY NE. MID 
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WRN GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 NOEL 
EXITS NEAR 33N72W AND BEGINS TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BUT NO LESS 
INTENSE. WINDS OVER GULF DECREASE WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. 
ATLC WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY EXCEPT FOR S OF 20N E OF 70W. 
CARIB WINDS MODERATE NW SECTION BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD...
    
FOR DAY 3 STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF E COAST AND MID LEVEL FLOW 
BECOMES MORE W AND NW TO W OF 80W. FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER 
GULF EXTENDS E AND NE TO 30N50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WINDS 
DECREASE W OF 65W WITH DEPARTING NOEL. HIGH PRES OVER MID ATLC 
KEEPS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF 25N E OF 60W. GULF WINDS 
MOSTLY 15 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR NW SECTION 
WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. 

FOR DAY 4 ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SE TO MID ATLC COAST 
WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING NWLY W OF 90W. FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE 
GETTING SQUEEZED SWD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W BY MOVEMENT OF STRONG 
SHORTWAVE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 ATLC WINDS FINALLY DYING DOWN AS 
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH PRES OVER NW GULF WITH WINDS 
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. NW CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 KT OTHERWISE ELY 10 
KT ELSEWHERE.

FOR DAY 5 NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SWD OVER NRN PLAINS 
AND WRN GREATLAKES WITH MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WLY S OF 
35N W OF 70W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 GULF HIGH PRES MOVING E WITH 
NE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER SW ATLC W OF 65W. WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER 
WRN GULF. CARIB WINDS CHANGE LITTLE WITH NE WINDS 20 KT OVER NW 
SECTION. STRENGTHENING LOW PRES NEAR 30N30W WILL INCREASE NLY 
WINDS E OF 40W N OF 25N.
              
WARNINGS...
ATLC...
AMZ080...TS WRNG S OF 27N BETWEEN 76W-80W.
         GALE WRNG ELSEWHERE N 23N W OF 65W AND S OF 23N W OF
         68W EXPECTED MERGE WITH TS WRNG THU.  

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG