000
AGXX40 KNHC 311753
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS DIFFICULT TO POSITION THUS DROPPING THE 
MENTION OF BOUNDARY IN TEXT PRODUCTS. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT 
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...A FEW 30 KT BARBS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING. 
EXPECT NE WINDS TO BECOME MORE NLY E GULF AS TS NOEL TRACKS N 
TOWARDS NW BAHAMAS. WINDS NOT EXPECTED BELOW 20 KT TILL FRI IN 
NE GULF ON AND FRI NIGHT OVER THE SE WATERS. NEXT SHORTWAVE 
WINDS UP CENTRAL CONUS LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY NW 
WATERS MON MORNING.    

ATLANTIC...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN TS NOEL AND HIGH PRES 
ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD CONUS NEAR 40N. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS 
TONIGHT AND THU OVER MOST WATERS W OF 65W MERGING WITH RADIUS 35 
TS WINDS SURROUNDING NOEL. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS WORDING OF 
MERGING GALE AREA WITH TS NOEL CONDITIONS IN ABOUT 42-48 HOURS 
AS NOEL BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL AND RACES OUT TO NE. BACKED OFF 
ON THE MAX SEAS HEIGHTS ON THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE FOR EARLY 
PERIODS...AND THEN BUILD SEAS BACK TO ABOUT 20 FT AS NOEL RACES 
NE PAST 31N. NOEL WILL TRAIL A TROUGH SW INTO THE W CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OVER THE SW ATLC 
WATERS WITH NLY WINDS W OF TROUGH BECOMING NE IN 15-20 KT RANGE 
THROUGH MON CONTINUING THE EROSION PROBLEMS ALONG SE COAST 
CONUS. 
    
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO PANAMA WILL FLUCTUATE E 
TO W THROUGH MON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TROUGH POSITION WILL 
REFERENCE WIND SHIFT TO TROUGH AXIS RATHER THAN A PARTICULAR 
LONGITUDE. BRISK NLY FLOW WILL PERSIST W OF THE TROUGH OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN...AND SLY 15-20 KT E OF TROUGH TO ABOUT 72W 
INCLUDING YUCATAN CHANNEL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 
TROPICAL WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO POSITION THIS MORNING SO DROPPED 
MENTION OF WAVE AXIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE GOOD FETCH OF ELY 15-20 
KT WINDS ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN WEAKEN TO MOSTLY 15 KT THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. 

                 
WARNINGS...
ATLC...
AMZ080...TS WRNG S OF 27N BETWEEN 76W-80W.
         GALE WRNG ELSEWHERE N 23N W OF 65W AND S OF 23N W OF
         68W EXPECTED MERGE WITH TS WRNG THU.  

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON