000
AGXX40 KNHC 310532
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN ATLC BRUSHING BY 30N TONIGHT. MID 
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING OVER ERN CONUS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE 
MOVING ESE OVER NRN PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL GULF 
TONIGHT MOVING SLOWLY E. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT ALL EYES ON T.S. 
NOEL OVER E CENTRAL CUBA MOVING NW AT 4 KT. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
OVER SW ATLC W OF 65W CREATING GALE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH SEAS. 
HIGH PRES MOVING OFF ERN SEABOARD RELAXING GRADIENT OVER WRN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND WINDS DECREASING. ELSEWHERE OVER ATLC S OF 
21N ELY TRADES TO 20 KT.

LATER DAY 1 STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 72W MAY 
INFLUENCE MOTION OF NOEL. WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER E CENTRAL GULF NOT 
DOING MUCH. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ESE TO WRN GREATLAKES. ON 
THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 T.S. NOEL FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF CUBA N 
COAST AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS 
CONTINUE W OF 65W. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

FOR DAY 2..FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER..SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES E OF FL 
AND INTERACTS WITH T.S. NOEL. SOME LOWERING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS 
ALONG 75W AS STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO ERN GREATLAKES. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 2 T.S. NOEL FORECAST TO MOVE N AND NE OVER WRN 
BAHAMAS WITH STRONGEST WINDS WELL E OF THE CENTER. WINDS 
INCREASE OVER ERN HALF OF GULF TO 25 KT AND TO 20 KT W OF 90W. 
STRONG HIGH OVER CENTRAL ATLC INCREASES WINDS N OF 26N TO 25 TO 
30 KT. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD...
    
FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WLY S OF 35N WITH WEAK 
SHORTWAVE LIFTING ENE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 T.S. NOEL FORECAST 
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE AND N OF AREA. STRONGEST WINDS N OF 28N W OF 
60W TO 25 KT. N OF 27N E OF 60W WINDS 25 TO 30 KT CONTINUE ON S 
SIDE OF STRONG RIDGE.

FOR DAY 4 SOME LOWERING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER ERN CONUS AS A 
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL FLOW 
BECOMING MORE NWLY W OF 90W. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SRN 
GULF EXTENDING E AND NE TO 30N55W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRES OVER GULF WITH NLY WINDS TO 20 KT. RIDGE 
OVER MID ATLC MOVING E AND WEAKENING BUT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
CONTINUE N OF 27N E OF 60W. CARIB WINDS TO 20 KT OVER NW SECTION 
OTHERWISE MOSTLY LIGHT ELSEWHERE. 

FOR DAY 5 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALLING OVER ERN SEABOARD 
AS SHORTWAVES PHASE TOGETHER..THUS MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING NWLY W 
OF 90W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES TO SE TX 
WITH WINDS OVER GULF DECREASING TO 15 KT. NLY WINDS OVER NW 
CARIB TO 20 KT AND OVER ATLC W OF 75W. WINDS OVER CENTRAL ATLC N 
OF 25N DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT. 
                 
WARNINGS...
ATLC...
AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 25N W OF 73W.
         TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 27N FROM 74W TO 79W.
         EXPECTED GALE WARNING MERGE WITH TS WARNING THU-SAT.  

CARIBBEAN...
AMZ086...NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ082...GALE WRNG EXPIRED AS OF 06Z 31 OCT.

FORECASTER RRG