000 AGXX40 KNHC 301721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N92W TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRES IS SITUATED TO THE N OF THE GULF FROM A SURFACE HIGH 1035 MB OVER VIRGINIA TO ANOTHER HIGH 1027 MB OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NELY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. A GALE WARNING IS WINDING DOWN IN THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER...WHILE THE CENTER OF NOEL IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT W TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM WILL PERSIST OVER PRIMARILY THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THU. THE WINDS AND SEAS ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC... VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM NOEL AND HIGH PRES 1035 MB OVER VIRGINIA IS MAINTAINING GALE CONDITIONS UP TO 35 KT ELY FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS TO THE N AND E. WHILE THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN GALE CONDITIONS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS LARGELY SEMANTICAL...THE 35 TO 40 KT ELY FLOW ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE THE MAIN THINGS FOR MARINERS TO FOCUS ON. NOEL IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND...CREATING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT BROAD AREA OF STRONG ELY FLOW...AND THE FACT THAT NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF OF CUBA BY TOMORROW MORNING AND WORK ITS WAY N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...THE HIGH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NOEL'S FORECAST GIVEN THAT IT'S OVER LAND CURRENTLY. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO PANAMA. FRESH NLY FLOW WILL PERSIST W OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE SE SIDE OF NOEL...OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ADJACENT WATERS BETWEEN SOUTHERN HAITI AND JAMAICA. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 66W...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS BEING PULLED UP INTO NOEL. ELY FLOW WILL INCREASE BY WED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AS NOEL LIFTS OUT. WARNINGS... ATLC... AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 25N W OF 73W. TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 28N FROM 74W TO 80W. EXPECTED GALE WARNING MERGE WITH TS WARNING THU-SAT. CARIBBEAN... AMZ086...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ082...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN