000 AGXX40 KNHC 300700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER CONUS AND REMNANTS OF FRONTAL TROUGH OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE MAINTAINS GALE FORCE CONDITIONS S OF 22N W OF 93W. WINDS WEAKEN AS TROUGH DRIFTS E AND EASES GRADIENT. STILL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE TO REMAIN ACROSS GULF AS TROPICAL STORM NOEL SKIRTS FLORIDA EAST COAST. HIGH PRES FINALLY GETS REINFORCED BY CANADIAN AIR MASS AND MOVES TROUGH AND NOEL FURTHER E IN 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE WINDS AND SEAS LINGERING E OF 90W WED AND LESS THAN 20 KT ENTIRE GULF BY LATE SAT. ATLC... WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EXPECTED TO HOLD PSN THROUGH TUE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N AND TROPICAL STORM NOEL MOVING NW ALONG BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN. FRONTAL TROUGH OVER GULF OF MEXICO STARTS MOVING E WITHIN 24 HRS ABSORBS NOEL AND CARRIES IT NE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MERGING GALE WARNING WITH TROPICAL STORM WARNING BECOMES TRICKY TO DETERMINE EXTENT OF ONE OR THE OTHER BUT RESULTING CONDITIONS ARE GRIM FOR MARINERS. MOST OF SW N ATLC HAS WINDS NEAR OR OVER 20 KT AND SEAS OVER 8 FT...REACHING AS HIGH AS 55 KT AND SEAS 25 FT NEAR FRONT/NOEL ALMOST THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK TROUGH EXTEND SW FROM TROPICAL STORM NOEL TO 10N82W. STRONG NE WINDS TRAPPED BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER GULF OF MEXICO AND NOEL WILL SHIFT NW AS NOEL DRIFT FURTHER N-NE AND DIMINISH BY LATE THU. SE-S WINDS ON E SIDE OF TROUGH FORCED BY APPROACH OF TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 61W. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TROUGH AND WAVE MERGE INTO WEAK LOW PRES IN SWRN CARIBBEAN SAT AND DRIFTING SW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. LATE SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... AMZ080...GALE WARNING NW OF STATIONARY FRONT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 28N FROM 74W TO 80W. EXPECTED GALE WARNING MERGE WITH TS WARNING THU-SAT. CARIBBEAN... AMZ086...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ082...GALE WARNING. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES