000
AGXX40 KNHC 291834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER CONUS AND REMNANTS OF A 
FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF WATERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 
GALE OVER THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 93W. I HAD EXPECTED THE TROUGH 
TO MOVE SE AND WASH OUT WITH GRADIENT RELAXING ABOUT 03Z 
TONIGHT...PER THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS 
HINTING AT ANOTHER BRIEF NLY SURGE MIDDAY TUE...SO THIS 
AFTERNOONS PACKAGE WILL EXTEND GALE ANOTHER 12 HOURS...TILL 18 
UTC TUE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME WED...BUT 
BECOME MORE NLY OVER E GULF IN RESPONSE TO TS NOEL MOVING INTO 
SE BAHAMAS AND MERGING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOEL WILL TURN 
NE LATE WED INTO THU. GFS STILL PAINTING PLENTY OF NE 20 KT 
BARBS OVER NW AND SE GULF INTO SAT MORNING. 

ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... 
A COLD FRONT ALMOST STALLED AGAIN FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA 
THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE STALLING ALONG 26-27N 
TUE. SURGING NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT AT MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH SO 
HAVE GALE WARNING UP N OF FRONT THROUGH TUE. BY THEN TS NOEL 
WILL BE IN CENTRAL BAHAMAS MERGING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
TRICKING WARNING HEADLINES TO EXPLAIN GALE WARNING MERGING WITH 
RADIUS OF TS FORCE WINDS IN ABOUT 36-42 HOURS. NOEL WILL LIFT 
OUT TO NE AFTER WED. RESULTANT SEAS TO NEAR 18 FT EXPECTED RIGHT 
ALONG FRONT TUE AFTERNOON. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS NOEL WILL BE 
NEAR ISLANDS THROUGH THU...AND SEAS HEIGHTS EQUALLY CONFUSING. A 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W WAS REPOSITIONED YESTERDAY SO WILL 
ESTIMATE MOTION AS W AT 15 KT. NICE SURGE OF 20 KT WINDS WITH 
SEAS TO ABOUT 10 FT E OF WAVE AXIS. EXPECT SOME OF THIS MIGRATE
INTO E CARIBBEAN...BUT WITH TROPICAL TRADE WINDS INTERRUPTED BY 
TS NOEL THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THE 20 KT ELY MAKING IT W OF 70W. 
IF NOEL LIFTS OUT SOONER...THIS MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS.
                     
WARNINGS...
ATLC...
AMZ080...GALE WARNING NW OF FRONT.
         TS WARNING S OF 24N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W.
         EXPECTED GALE WARNING MERGE WITH TS WARNING.  

CARIBBEAN...
AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ082...GALE WARNING.

FORECASTER NELSON