000 AGXX40 KNHC 281657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE CONUS AND REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER SE WATERS IS ALREADY AT OR NEAR MINIMAL GALE OVER GULF WATERS NEAR 24N91W PER 1118Z QSCAT PASS. THEREFORE...I BUMPED UP GALE WARNING TO ALL WATERS S OF 25N W OF 90W INITIALLY...THEN I SHRINK THE AFFECTED WATERS TO JUST S OF 22N W OF 93W TONIGHT AND ENDING TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 40 KT NEAR VICINITY 19N94W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO MAX NEAR 18 FT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN WATERS BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WED TO ABOUT 20 KT OVER SW WATERS AND ALL WATERS E OF 85W...BUT CONTINUE IN THESE EASTERN WATERS THU AND FRI AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM CROSSING CUBA ROUGHLY ALONG 80W THU BEFORE MERGING WITH FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE MOVED E OF AREA TO BAHAMAS. ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... A COLD FRONT ALMOST STALLED FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING E TONIGHT REACHING POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUNRISE WED...THEN STALL AGAIN W OF 65W ALONG 25N THU. MODELS HINTING AT NEAR GALE N-NE WINDS N OF FRONT LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE...BUT PLAN TO GO MAX OF 30 KT WITH SEAS TO NEAR 16 FT IN N SWELL. IF FUTURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES CURRENT TREND MAY HAVE TO KICK UP WINDS ANOTHER 5 KT AND POST MINIMAL GALE OVER WATERS NE OF BAHAMAS IN TONIGHTS FORECAST PACKAGE. NEXT CONCERN IS SLOPPY TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AIRCRAFT RECON WILL INVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HOPEFULLY IMPROVE MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...EXPECTING A TROPICAL STORM TO CROSS CUBA ALONG 80W WED NIGHT AND THU MERGING WITH REMNANTS OF FRONT AND THEN LIFT NE ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI INTO SAT. SO LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FL E COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME NE SWELL WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS CHANNEL...AND SOME E SWELL ALSO LIKELY TO PROPAGATE W THROUGH THE PROVIDENCE CHANNEL. STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY NE QUADRANT OF DEPRESSION SO EXPECTED 25 KT OVER WATERS NEAR SE BAHAMAS BEGINNING TONIGHT. GRADIENT IN ELY TRADES ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TROPICAL WATERS SO WILL INCREASE E WINDS TROPICAL ATLC ZONE MON ARRIVING E CARIBBEAN TUE AND PERHAPS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED IF TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN FORECAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 26N W OF 76W EXPECTED THU AND FRI. CARIBBEAN... AMZ082 AND AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NE LINE 16N75W 22N82W THROUGH THU. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING GMZ082 THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. FORECASTER NELSON