000 AGXX40 KNHC 280632 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRES 1035 MB OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BEING REINFORCED BY COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS PUSHING E ACROSS ERN SEABOARD. LOW PRES TROUGH NEAR YUCATAN PASSAGE TIGHTENS GRADIENT WITH VERY STRONG NORTHERLIES CROSSING GULF WITH GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS STARTING EARLY MON. WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH TUE AND AND WED AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND MOVES E. BY THU WINDS W OF 90W BECOME MODERATE EAST WHILE STRONG NE STILL LINGER E OF 90W. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN JUST S OF HISPANIOLA MOVING W-NW 6 KT PICKING UP SOME INTENSITY AS UPPER WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND WARM SST FEEDS PLENTY OF HEAT. MODEL CONSENSUS UPGRADES IT TO TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12 HRS AND TRACKS NW PARALLEL TO CUBA SOUTH COAST. STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOWER KEYS TO YUCATAN PENINSULA GETS POWERFUL SURGE...SWEEPS E AND VEERS TROPICAL STORM NE ACROSS BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT STARTING EARLY SUN AND REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN SYSTEMS TURNS INTO SW N ATLC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 GUSTS TO 75 KT MAKES IT A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM. EXPECTED SEAS OVER 20 FT COULD AFFECT NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU OR LONGER IF SYSTEMS SLOWS DOWN OR CHANGES TRACK. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG NWRN CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH ADVANCING TROPICAL STORM. ATLANTIC... HIGH PRES 1035 MB MOVE OVER ERN SEABOARD SUN REINFORCES STATIONARY FRONT NOW OVER FLORIDA AND SWEEPS IT EASTWARD MON AND TUE DRAGGING ALONG INTENSIFYING TROPICAL STORM CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA. PRESENT ATLC HIGH PRES 1030 MB WELL N OF AREA MAINTAINS LONG E-W FETCH WITH STRONG EASTERLIES BUILDING 12-18 FT SEAS S OF 28N. PREVIOUS GLOBAL MODELS RUNS EVEN BROUGHT WIND SPEEDS TO GALE FORCE...BUT ON LATEST RUN THE ENTIRE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY TROPICAL STORM WIND FIELD. TROPICAL STORM SHOULD BE N OF 31N THU WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS THROUGHOUT SW N ATLC. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WED AND THU...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 16N W OF 71W...AMZ082 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 21N W OF 93W MON....GMZ082. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES