000 AGXX40 KNHC 270534 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 134 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRES CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING W AS A WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL FL TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER MS WITH WEAK RIDGING PROTRUDING SWD INTO THE WRN GOMEX. THE PRES GRADIENT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE WARM FRONT WITH BUOYS 42001 AND 42003 REPORTING WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE PRES GRADIENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY TIGHT...AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON ESP OVER THE NRN MIDDLE GULF ON THE NW SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS SPREAD W AND S TONIGHT AND SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS FROM N/CNTRL FL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS AND THE ASSORTED ENSEMBLE RUNS...CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE OVER THE FAR SW GULF SUN NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH TUE. IN FACT...THE GFS HAS WINDS UP TO 45 KT OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR MON AFTERNOON. I MAY INCREASE WINDS TO 40 KT FOR THAT AREA BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING ANY HIGHER UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL RUNS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON WED...WITH NO WARNINGS REQUIRED...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CONUS LOSES ITS GRIP. ATLANTIC... STRONG HIGH PRES N OF BERMUDA AND LOW PRES S OF PUERTO RICO HAD COMBINED TO PRODUCE BRISK ELY WINDS TO 30 KT OVER THE WATERS E OF THE SRN BAHAMAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS EXEMPLIFIED IN THE 2252 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THE ATLC HIGH IS SHIFTING NE INTO THE N ATLC...AND THESE WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH ISOLATED POCKETS TO 30 KT. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE W AND WILL BRING THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO S FL/STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY LIGHTEN TO 15-20 KT ON MON OVER THE SW PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER FL WILL EASE BACK TO THE E OVER THE NW WATERS WITH WINDS INCREASING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY BEGINNING SUN NIGHT. BY MON...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE JUST E OF JACKSONVILLE. A BIG CONCERN HERE WILL BE LONG-FETCH NELY GALES THAT WILL SET UP OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST AND SEND OUT SWELLS TO THE FLORIDA COAST. WW3 GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS 9-10 SEC SWELLS REACHING THE FL COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH OFFSHORE WAVE HGTS UP TO 16 FT...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND BEACH EROSION. CARIBBEAN... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W/WSW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE BUT LUCKILY IT DOES APPEAR SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE NRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AS CONFIRMED BY QUIKSCAT BUT THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS THE FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE STRONGER GRADIENT TO THE N. WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY TO 20 KT AND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ELSEWHERE...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE N/NW WINDS 20 KT TO ITS W...BUT THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THE AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE MON THROUGH WED AT WHICH POINT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG