000 AGXX40 KNHC 261803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM ROUGHLY THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS GULF WATERS EARLIER THIS WEEK NOW EXTENDS FROM SE FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA. THE FRONT IS STARTING ITS ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT WWD AS A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES BE INCREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE N...AND LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE CARIBBEAN. LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM 26/09Z IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS SHOWING BETTER THAN 40% OF GREATER THAN GALE FORCE IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WILL ADJUST TIMING AND INTRODUCE MINIMAL GALE SUN NIGHT FOR SW GULF. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STARTING TOMORROW. THE INCREASED FLOW MAY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME...AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... LOW PRES 1006 MB S OF THE MONA PASSAGE...SW OF PUERTO RICO...CONTINUES TO MOVE WSW TO THE S OF HISPANIOLA BY TOMORROW. STRONG WLY SHEAR DEALT BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE N...HAS LEFT THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY EXPOSED. IT IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A CANDIDATE FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. A SECOND LOW 1009 MB IS CENTERED BETWEEN BELIZE...JAMAICA...AND S OF WESTERN CUBA. THE OVERALL THOUGHT IS THAT THE LOW NEAR NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE W AS IT WEAKENS...AND MERGE WITH THE BROAD LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS IT KEEP THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE INITIALLY IN THE MONA PASSAGE...THEN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TOMORROW WHERE STRONGER NELY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS AND INTO THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MERGE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF CUBA. FURTHER E OVER THE TROP N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG ENE FLOW TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS W. LARGE SWELL OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH AS WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC... QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS STRONG...25 TO 30 KT...ELY FLOW TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO...BETWEEN LOW PRES S OF PUERTO RICO AND HIGH PRES TO THE N NEAR BERMUDA. SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY ALSO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT ELY FLOW ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH ALL BUT THE NW BAHAMAS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW TO S MOVES FURTHER W...AND THE HIGH TO THE N WEAKENS. HOWEVER...LARGE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF N FLORIDA BRINGING A NEW ROUND OF STRONG NELY FLOW TO TO THE WATERS N OF 26N. SHAPING UP TO BE A WINDY PERIOD FOR THE BAHAMAS FROM NOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN