000 AGXX40 KNHC 260600 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRES HAS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR MEMPHIS TN MOVING N THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY...AND THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST E OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. BUOY OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A POST-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE GULF WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BUT WINDS/SEAS HAVE REALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE W ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY WITH NLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE E GULF BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ON SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD W OVER THE WRN/MIDDLE GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NLY WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WILL REACH 25-30 KT SUN THROUGH TUE...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE MON/TUE OVER THE USUAL FAVORED AREAS OF THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. I WILL AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE TO ASSESS GALE PROBABILITIES... AND THEN I MAY HAVE TO ADD HEADLINES FOR THE SW GULF IN THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE. ATLANTIC... MUCH OF THE W ATLC WATERS ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRES NE OF BERMUDA...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF ELY 20-30 KT WINDS N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AS SEEN IN QUIKSCAT AND BUOY OBS. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A HIGHEST 1-MIN WIND OF 33 KT AND HAS BEEN AVERAGING AROUND 25 KT WITH SEAS NOW UP TO 13 FT IN A 10 SEC ELY SWELL. THAT BUOY...ALONG WITH BUOYS 41046 AND 41047...ARE REPORTING SEAS ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN SHOWN BY WW3 GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD W TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AS LOW PRES TRACKS WWD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST E OF FLORIDA WILL PUSH W ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BUT THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ON SAT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND MON...AND THEN THIS AREA WILL MERGE WITH THE OTHER SWATH OF STRONGER WINDS BY TUE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AT THIS POINT...THE UKMET IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE CARIBBEAN LOW NW ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE BAHAMAS MON AND TUE SO IT WILL BE DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF KEEPING THE LOW FARTHER S WITH STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE REGION. CARIBBEAN... THE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF INTEREST. FIRST TO THE E. LOW PRES IS PLACED BY SAN JUAN RADAR TO BE JUST S OF VIEQUES NEAR 18N65.5W AND IS MOVING TO THE WSW. THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER STRONG WLY SHEAR AND ALL DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE E OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT THE LOW IS INCREASING THE GRADIENT TO ITS N...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...MENTION OF POSSIBLE TRPCL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE KEPT UNTIL THE SYSTEM APPEARS THAT IT NO LONGER HAS A CHANCE. NOW TO THE W. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA SWD TO JUST E OF NICARAGUA AND HAS BECOME WRAPPED INTO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE REGION. AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF STRONG 20-25 KT NW WINDS ON THE W SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY REACHING AS FAR S AS 13N. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THEN LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUN. THE AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W AND REACH THE W CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY TO ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE AROUND THE LOW ITSELF...BUT THIS EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE A GREATER CHANCE TO BE A GRADIENT WIND EVENT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WELL TO THE NW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG