000
AGXX40 KNHC 251844
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS 
HAS STALLED FROM S FLORIDA THROUGH NE HONDURAS. THE BOUNDARY IS 
EXPECTED TO SLIDE BACK INTO THE EASTERN GULF...BUT BASICALLY 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIKSCAT AND SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WINDS DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING. THE 
LIGHT FLOW REGIME SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 
BEYOND THAT...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE 
IN THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO 
STRONG NELY FLOW OVER THE AREA STARTING SAT...AND PERSISTING AT 
LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS THE 
MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUN THROUGH TUE. GENERALLY MODEL 
CONSENSUS IS THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE 25 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHEST 
WINDS WILL BE LATE MON IN SW GULF. WILL HOLD JUST BELOW GALE FOR 
NOW AS A RESULT...WINDS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD DEPENDING 
ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE NEARBY CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC...
LOW PRES 1008 MB PERSISTS NE OF THE VIRGEN ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. 
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE 
VIRGEN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND MERGE WITH 
BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
FOR MARINE INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW 
TO THE N BREAKS UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT USUALLY IN PLACE ON THE 
SOUTH EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. THUS...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY 
LIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...BUOY 42056 IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN 
REPORTING NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT TODAY...BEHIND THE WEAKENING 
AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 
NE HONDURAS. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI...BUT 
MAY INCREASE AGAIN AT LEAST NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SAT AS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N82W TO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N75W. 
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY ON THE S SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOWS SWLY FLOW 
CONVERGING INTO THE LIGHT NE TO E FLOW N OF THE 
TROUGH...RESULTING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLOMBIAN 
AND VENEZUELAN COASTS. FURHTER W...FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW NE 
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER W.

SW N ATLANTIC...
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO JUST OFF THE SE 
COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL GLIDE W OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT 
DISSIPATES. HIGH PRES 1025 MB CENTERED NE OF THE AREA NEAR 
35N61W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W AND WEAKEN...IN RESPONSE TO UPPER 
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING OUT TO N. AS THE 
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS W...EXPECT ELY FLOW GENERALLY E OF THE 
BAHAMAS TO INCREASE MAINLY FRI...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS 
THE HIGH WEAKENS TO THE N AND THE LOW PRES TO THE SHIFTS W. 
LARGE WIND WAVES AND ELY SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WELL INTO 
SUN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST 
MON...ALLOWING AT LEAST FRESH FLOW OFF N FLORIDA INTO TUE. 
LIKEWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS JUST W OF 
THE BAHAMAS TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO INCREASE MON AND TUE.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN