000 AGXX40 KNHC 250532 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 132 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA WITH AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA. THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW STILL HANGING BACK NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS ARE OUT OF THE N/NW AND HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS WITH 20 KT STILL OBSERVED IN THE NW GULF BUOYS BEHIND A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 25N93W. SEAS ARE ALSO SUBSIDING WITH WAVE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGHEST SEAS ARE NEAR 10 FT OVER THE SE GULF AND FAR SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. FOR TODAY...THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE W OF 93W WHERE NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WHILE WINDS WILL RELAX TO 5-10 KT OVER THE MIDDLE GULF. CONDITIONS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRI BUT THEN THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE E GULF FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA DRIFTS BACK TO THE W. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT AND COUPLED WITH LOW PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...NLY WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND WRN GULF WILL INCREASE SAT THROUGH MON. THE 00Z GFS AS WELL AS THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH INDICATE THAT WINDS COULD GET AS HIGH AS 30 KT...SO I WILL BUMP UP WINDS A BIT FOR SUN AND MON YET STILL KEEP THE FCST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH LONG-FETCH STRONG NLYS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA FOR 3 DAYS OR SO...SEAS WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD INTO THE 12-14 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW GULF. ATLANTIC... A COLD FRONT HAS EASED ABOUT 90 NM OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EXTENDING SW ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. A SURFACE RIDGE LIES FROM BERMUDA SW TO JUST W OF ANDROS ISLAND WITH A FAIRLY GOOD GRADIENT ALREADY SETTING UP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF PUERTO RICO...AND THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND EXPAND W THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT. THE CURRENT FCST ADVERTISES WINDS 20-25 KT...BUT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS WHERE WINDS REACH 30 KT MAINLY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THEREFORE...THE FCST WILL BE INCREASED TO 20-30 KT WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY BUILDING TO 12-13 FT E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND N OF PUERTO RICO. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX ON SAT AND THEN ON SUN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN DRIFTS E OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE FRONT DOES NOT MAKE IT FAR TO THE E BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ITS W ON MON WHICH WILL ALLOW NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE WATERS JUST E OF JACKSONVILLE. CARIBBEAN... THE COLD FRONT OVER FLORIDA CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM THE ISLE OF YOUTH SW TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. NW WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF TODAY. THE FRONT THEN REALLY WASHES OUT BUT INTERACTS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR W/NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THE BROAD LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON...AND THERE ARE STILL NO INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT THAT IT WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ANYTHING MENACING. ELSEWHERE...LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W/SW INTO THE E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE LOW WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT STRONG TO ITS N BUT WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL BE LIGHT ON ITS SRN PERIPHERY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG