000 AGXX40 KNHC 241653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1250 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDE BELT OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STALLING FROM TAMPA TO COZUMEL. STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOTED IN THREE SHIP REPORTS...ALL S OF 26N TO THE NRN COAST OF YUCATAN. ALTHOUGH NO CURRENT DATA ARE AVAILABLE...THIS INFERS THAT AT LEAST 30 KT FLOW IS STILL OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE UPPER CYCLONE DRIVING THE FRONT IS MEANDERING AROUND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH UPPER FLOW GENERALLY SELY ACROSS THE FRONT. FORECAST CALLS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES. LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE THU...BUT NELY FLOW WILL INCREASE BY FRI NIGHT. THIS INCREASE IS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH BUILDING TO THE N...AND FALLING PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP OBSERVATION HINT OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE LOW 1009 MB NEAR 14N76W. A STALLING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE ERN YUCATAN AND BELIZE COASTS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W IS PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER LOW PRES 1010 MB IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N60W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP W OF THE FRONT ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT SHOW FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW IS NOTED IN QUIKSCAT IMAGERY IN THE TROP N ATLC N OF 13N. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THIS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW A LOW PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT...AND WEAKENS THE LOW OFF THE LEEWARDS AS IT DRIFTS W. THE UKMET IS SIMILAR BUT SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE DEEPENING. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW OFF THE LEEWARDS AS THE MAIN LOW AND SHIFTS W ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THE NOGAPS AND THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ALSO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT AFTER THU WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND TROP N ATLC...EXCEPT THAT NELY WINDS MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BY FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N. IN ADDITION...WW3 SHOWS MODEST RESIDUAL SWELL WITH 9-10S PERIODS PUSHING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. SW N ATLANTIC... MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW DOMINATES BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF AND HIGH PRES 1024 MB CENTERED TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THE 20 KT FLOW IS CONTAINED MOSTLY E OF 75W. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS TIED TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRES CELL TO THE NE... AND THE WWD MOVING LOW NOW NE OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE STALLING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT OF THE WWD MOVEMENT...ELY WINDS S OF THE HIGH PRES WILL INCREASE OVER MAINLY S OF 28N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS FRI INTO SAT. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE SAT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER W AND/OR WEAKENS...AND THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING...S OF 21N W OF 93W...GMZ082. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN