000 AGXX40 KNHC 240547 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 147 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH E ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT BUT IS LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH AND SPEED AS ITS PARENT LOW OCCLUDES OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THUS IT WOULD BE EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FAR AS WARNINGS...A 0012 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE TO 40 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GALE WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED TO RESIDUAL 35 KT GALES OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FIRST PERIOD...BUT THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA THROUGH THE DAY. THERE ARE NO SEA REPORTS IN THE ZONE OF HIGHEST WAVES...BUT WW3 GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HGTS AND SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF 18 FT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNRISE. OVERALL SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EWD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE 00Z RUN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN THIS SCENARIO THE FRONT...ALBEIT A GLIMMER OF WHAT IT ONCE WAS...WILL MAKE IT PARTLY ACROSS FLORIDA AND THEN STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE EAST COAST STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THU MORNING. THE REMNANT TROUGH THEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FLORIDA FRI AND SAT. BY FRI...WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SEAS HAVING SUBSIDED TO 3-5 FT OVER THE SRN PART AND 1-3 FT OVER THE NRN PART. BIG CHANGES BEGIN ON SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20-25 KT THROUGH THE DAY SAT AND INTO SUN AS THIS GRADIENT INCREASES. ATLANTIC... SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT E OF 70W. THE HIGH WHICH ANCHORS THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT ALSO PROPAGATING WWD. AS SUCH...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT E OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATE THU AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH LATE FRI. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH ON SAT AND SUN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED JUST NE OF ANTIGUA NEAR 18N60W. WHILE THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO 20 KT TO THEIR N...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS VERY BULLISH WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT DRIFTS W ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN... GENERALLY LIGHT TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH BROAD TROUGHING LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE YUCATAN COAST SOME TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT MAINLY W OF 83W BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT THE BROAD LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL DO IN THE COMING DAYS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP IT RATHER BROAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ITS MAIN EFFECTS BEING AN INCREASED PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS NEAR THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CONSIDERING IT IS STILL OCTOBER. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING...S OF 21N...GMZ082. FORECASTER BERG